习近平总书记指出，同自然灾害抗争是人类生存发展的永恒课题。处理好人和自然的关系，坚持目标导向和问题导向相统一，不断总结经验，落实责任、健全体系、统筹资源、优化力量配置，提高社会和民众防灾减灾意识，尽可能地降低灾害损失，是各级政府的重要职责和必备能力，也是政府治理能力现代化的重要标志。我国是台风灾害的重灾国之一，每年登陆的台风在7个左右，台风及其次生灾害易造成人员伤亡和财产损失，严重威胁人民群众生命财产安全。 将有效的台风预警系统工作流程定义为：确定预警等级，留出响应时间发出预警，通过各种途径进行推送，覆盖可能受灾的人群，进而采取精准有效的措施，有效防御台风灾害。在此基础上，将影响台风预警系统效能的关键因素分解为预警等级、预警时间、预警途径和预警覆盖范围四项要素，以此作为研究对象，采用案例研究的方式进行实证分析，找到台风预警系统中影响防范应对效果的关键变量，针对性解决问题，进一步提升台风预警系统效能，尽可能的减少台风灾害带来的伤亡损失。围绕台风预警等级、时间、途径、覆盖范围四种变量逐一进行案例分析，在保证其他条件相同或相近的情况下，确定唯一变量，对比这一变量发生变化时带来的对台风防御结果的影响，从而找到关键因素，通过优化这一因素提升台风预警系统的效能。 对四项要素的案例分析分别选取：预警等级效能选取台风m进行解剖分析，大陆与台湾由于预警等级不同，最终的防御效果也完全不同。预警时间效能选取飓风k和台风w进行对比分析，在风情雨情水情相似以及同样作为人口密集城市受灾的情况下，两者造成的伤亡差异巨大。预警途径效能选取台风s进行解剖分析，研究造成巨大伤亡的原因。预警覆盖范围效能选取台风b进行分析，查找我国不同地区防御效果产生差异的原因。典型案例的对比论证说明，四种因素对台风预警效能都有决定性的影响，都是台风预警成功的必要不充分条件，我国现行的台风预警体系已经将四种因素的效能提升到了较高水平，精细化预警上还有提升空间，但是大规模风灾防范应对已经有了较为成熟、有效的预警和响应机制。 最后，根据我国现行法规标准、党和政府执政理念、防灾减灾实践经验，结合我国现阶段经济社会现实条件，就优化台风灾害防范应对措施、提升预警系统效能提出建议，以期能为提升台风灾害防御能力起到推动作用。关键词：台风灾害；预警系统；效能；防范应对

General secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that fighting against natural disasters is an eternal topic for human survival and development. Dealing with the relationship between good people and nature, adhering to the unity of goal orientation and problem orientation, constantly summing up experience, implementing responsibilities, improving the system, coordinating resources, optimizing the allocation of forces, improving the awareness of society and the people in disaster prevention and reduction, and reducing disaster losses as much as possible are important responsibilities and necessary capabilities of governments at all levels, as well as an important symbol of the modernization of government governance capabilities. China is one of the hardest hit countries by typhoon disasters. There are about 7 typhoons landing every year. Typhoons and their secondary disasters often cause casualties and property losses, which seriously threaten the safety of people's lives and property. The workflow of an effective typhoon early warning system is defined as: determine the early warning level, set aside response time to send an early warning, push it through various ways, cover the people who may be affected and decision-makers, and then take accurate and effective measures to effectively prevent typhoon disasters. On this basis, the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the typhoon early warning system are divided into four elements: early warning level, early warning time, early warning approach and early warning coverage. Taking this as the research object, the empirical analysis is carried out by means of case study to find the key variables affecting the prevention and response effect in the typhoon early warning system, solve the problems and further improve the effectiveness of the typhoon early warning system, Reduce casualties and losses caused by typhoon disasters as much as possible. Case analysis is carried out one by one around the four variables of typhoon early warning level, time, approach and coverage. Under the condition of ensuring that other conditions are the same or similar, the only variable is determined, and the impact on typhoon defense results caused by the change of this variable is compared, so as to find the key factors and improve the efficiency of typhoon early warning system by optimizing this factor. The case analysis of the four elements is selected respectively: the effectiveness of early warning level is selected as typhoon m for anatomical analysis. Due to the different early warning levels, the final defense effect is completely different between the mainland and Taiwan. Hurricane K and typhoon W are selected for comparative analysis of early warning time efficiency. When the customs, rain and water conditions are similar and are also affected as densely populated cities, the casualties caused by the two are very different. The effectiveness of early warning approach selects typhoon s for anatomical analysis to study the causes of huge casualties. The effectiveness of early warning coverage is analyzed by selecting typhoon B to find out the reasons for the differences in defense effects in different regions of China. The comparative demonstration of typical cases shows that the four factors have a decisive impact on the effectiveness of typhoon early warning, which are the necessary and insufficient conditions for the success of typhoon early warning. China's current typhoon early warning system has improved the effectiveness of the four factors to a higher level, and there is still room for improvement in fine early warning, but there is a relatively mature and effective early warning and response mechanism for large-scale wind disaster prevention and response. Finally, according to China's current laws and regulations, the ruling concept of the party and the government, the practical experience of disaster prevention and reduction, and combined with China's current economic and social realistic conditions, this paper puts forward suggestions on optimizing typhoon disaster prevention and response measures and improving the efficiency of early warning system, in order to promote the ability of typhoon disaster prevention. Key words: Typhoon disaster; Early warning system; efficiency；Prevention and response