暴雨灾害作为人类社会面临的重大自然灾害之一，具有破坏性强、影响范围广、次生衍生事件多、灾害损失严重等特点，研究暴雨灾害的致灾规律和演化过程，能够帮助应急决策者有效开展灾害的防控和应对，减轻灾害造成的损失和影响。传统研究主要聚焦在暴雨引发某特定灾害的致灾原理、演化机理、风险评估、应急决策等方面，取得了一定的效果，但在整体描述暴雨及其引发的次生衍生灾害要素构成和关联关系，定量化表达暴雨灾害的演化过程，以及构建最优应急决策模型方面，还存在不足。因此，采用“情景-应对”理论和数据驱动技术相结合的方法成为暴雨灾害这类复杂突发事件研究的重要趋势。有鉴于此，本论文站在全局角度，在暴雨灾害的要素构成及关联关系，情景演化和最优应急决策策略等方面进行了探索性研究。（1）提出暴雨灾害“全灾种”情景要素构成和关联关系。基于突发事件一般机理和应对实践，提出了突发事件FBIREC情景基本模型，并应用到暴雨灾害情景构建，结合大量暴雨灾害案例，构建暴雨灾害知识图谱，提出了暴雨灾害全要素情景网络，得出致灾因子暴雨、承灾体、次生衍生事件、造成的后果以及应急响应措施之间的关联关系。（2）建立基于情景推演的暴雨灾害总体态势分析与综合风险评估模型。将Bayes网络方法应用到突发事件情景演化，在暴雨灾害全要素情景网络基础上，构建暴雨灾害Bayes网络，确定网络中节点含义和状态值,并开展推演计算，得出暴雨灾害的总体态势和事件风险定量表达，以及灾害网络中的应急响应关键节点。（3）提出基于时空演化的暴雨灾害最优应急响应策略。将Markov决策过程方法应用到突发事件应急决策，并在暴雨灾害Bayes网络基础上，针对暴雨灾害时空演化过程，提出暴雨灾害Markov决策过程单一空间及多空间建模方法，得到应急资源有限的条件下，使灾害总体损失最小的最优应急响应策略。最后，结合北京市五起典型暴雨灾害和郑州市“2021.7.20”暴雨灾害的应对比较，通过构建暴雨灾害全要素情景网络，并开展模拟推演，验证了暴雨灾害情景构建、演化及应急决策方法的有效性和实用性，为暴雨灾害的科学应对提供了有益探索。
As one of the major natural disasters facing human society, rainstorm disaster has the characteristics of strong destructiveness, wide range of influence, more secondary derivative events, and serious disaster losses. Researching on the disaster causing law and deduction process of rainstorm disaster can help emergency decision-makers effectively prevent, control, and respond disaster, to reduce the losses and impacts caused by disasters. Traditional researches mainly focus on the disaster causing principle, deduction mechanism, risk assessment and emergency decision-making of a specific disaster caused by rainstorm, and have achieved certain results. However, there are still some deficiencies in describing the composition and correlation of rainstorm and its secondary derived disasters, quantifying the deduction process of rainstorm disasters, and constructing the optimal emergency decision-making model. Therefore, the approach based on a combination of "scenario response" theory and data-driven technology has become an important trend in the research of complex emergencies such as rainstorm disaster.With these facts, this paper, from the overall perspective, carries out exploratory studies on the elements of rainstorm disaster and its relationship, scenario deduction and optimal emergency decision-making strategy.i. Describing the all elements and correlations of rainstorm disaster. Based on the general mechanism and response practice of emergencies, the paper proposes the basic model of emergency FBIREC scenario, and applies it to the construction of rainstorm disaster scenario. Combined with a large number of rainstorm disaster cases, the knowledge graph of rainstorm disaster is constructed, and the all elements scenario network of rainstorm disaster which shows the correlations among disaster causing factors, disaster bearing body, secondary derivative events, casualties and emergency response measures is put forward.ii. Establishing the model of overall situation analysis and comprehensive risk evaluation for rainstorm disaster based on scenarios deduction quantitatively. Bayesian network is applied to the deduction of emergency scenarios, and the Bayesian network of rainstorm disaster is constructed based on the all elements scenario network of rainstorm disaster. On this basis, the meaning and state value of the nodes in the network are determined, and the overall situation of rainstorm disaster and the quantitative expression of event risk are deduced, as well as the key nodes of emergency response in the network.iii. Proposing the optimal emergency response strategy for rainstorm disasters based on spatiotemporal deduction analysis. Markov decision process method is applied to emergency decision. Based on the Bayesian network and spatiotemporal deduction of rainstorm disaster, the single-space and multi-space modeling methods of Markov decision process of rainstorm disaster are developed, and the optimal emergency response strategy to minimize the total loss of disaster is obtained under the condition of limited emergency resources.Finally, combined with the response comparison of five typical rainstorm disasters in Beijing and one typical rainstorm disaster in Zhengzhou, this paper constructs the all elements scenario network, and carries out simulation deduction to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the models of rainstorm disaster scenario construction, deduction and emergency decision-making, which provides a useful exploration for the scientific response of rainstorm disaster.
