“一带一路”倡议提出之后，中国和沿线国家地区之间的基建投资合作日益密切。大多数项目通过公私伙伴关系（PPP）的方式来推进，以解决跨国基建缺口问题。然而，跨国PPP项目面对着巨大的投资风险和一定的政治风险，特别是一些金额较大的合作项目例子表明合作方国家可能在自身利益的考虑下搁置或取消项目。面对项目论证和实践过程中的风险，有必要通过相应的理论分析和实证分析来审视评估跨国PPP项目的安全性和稳健性。然而，现有的研究尚未提出明确的跨国PPP环境评估框架，而已有的PPP分析框架着重国内的主体对象分析，无法评估地域和制度差异为跨国PPP项目带来的挑战。同时，国内PPP指数的框架应用到跨国营商环境时，现有的数据无法配合框架提供相应的资料，大大限制了国内PPP指数在国际层面的应用性。本文结合文献综述，通过实证分析，对21个国家的2006-2019年的PPP营商环境进行框架评估和指数计算。本文主要通过实际案例实践情形，以自下而上的方式，从数据实证分析的视角提炼PPP营商环境指数的新框架。研究发现，一个国家的反腐败能力每提升一个单位，则中国在该国的贸易顺差可能增加约66.7%；防治暴力情况发生的能力每提升一个单位，则中国在该国的贸易顺差可能提高约36.4%；法治每提升一个单位，中国的贸易顺差会增加约1.7%；管治效率每提升一个单位，中国的贸易顺差会增加约252%；行业监管情况每提升一个单位，中国的贸易顺差会增加约1.2%。相比之下，国民的影响反而有限。然后，通过典型国家的案例分析，验证了“一带一路”PPP营商环境框架和指数评估结果的适用性。本文基于已有文献，结合实证分析，首先建构了新的PPP营商环境指数框架，用于分析不同国家的跨国PPP营商环境友善程度，以及识别潜在的挑战和风险；然后，通过数据收集计算了各国PPP营商环境指数；最后，通过典型案例进一步验证了框架和指数结果的实用性。本文首次建构PPP营商环境框架和应用评估指数，对应该如何选择理想的“一带一路”合作伙伴国家具有指导作用。结合研究发现，本文建议选择跨国PPP营商环境评分较高的国家作为“一带一路”项目开展地，也建议企业注重项目所在地对合约的保障和政策贯彻的情况，透过定时监察避免对项目过度融资。当项目出现争议，本文建议透过协商方式争取重启项目。
The “Belt and Road Initiatives” initiated by China has suggested private-public partnership (PPP) as a way to address the needs of partnering countries for infrastructural developments. Yet, PPP projects, especially sizeable ones, are facing huge financial and political risks. Partnering countries may often halt or cancel projects out of consideration for self-interest. In view of the risks facing the transnational PPP projects, theoretical and empirical frameworks should have been developed to evaluate the operational robustness of PPP projects. Nonetheless, existing frameworks have proved themselves to be preoccupied by projects within the same jurisdiction, and could not account for the challenges posed by differences in institutional arrangements across countries. Moreover, certain PPP Indices have been developed using national data which are readily available but the applicability of the frameworks are compromised when suited to international databases where data availability do not match the requirements of the frameworks. The lack of matching data has reduced the usefulness of existing PPP Indices in explaining the transnational PPP environment.To address the knowledge gap, this research has employed empirical methods to analyze data related to PPP business environment of 21 countries from 2006 to 2019. Results show that when a country’s ability to combat corruption increases by 1 unit, China’s trade surplus in that country increases by 66.7%. When a country’s ability to contain violence increases by 1 unit, China’s trade surplus increases by 36.4%. When rule of law increases by 1 unit, China’ trade surplus increases by 1.7%. When administrative effectiveness increases by 1 unit, China’s trade surplus increases by 252%. When regulatory quality increases by 1 unit, China’s trade surplus increases by 1.2%. Economic development condition of the country were found to be less relevant. Qualitative study of cases further provided insights that confirm the positive effects that certain factors bring to the transnational PPP business environment, and suggests that excellent project management can help overcome adverse conditions present in the international business environment.
