道路机动车是大气污染的重要排放来源，而高分辨率道路机动车排放清单则是认识污染来源和制订减排策略的重要基础。当前在全球和区域尺度机动车排放清单建立方面已有大量工作，但全球尺度排放清单依然存在车队技术分布和排放因子表征精度低、排放动态表征方法缺失等问题，而在区域尺度也存在时空分辨率和动态化程度不足的问题。针对上述问题，本研究首先构建了全球尺度基于技术的机动车排放动态表征模型，并在此基础上编制了2000-2017年全球机动车动态排放清单；研究进而以中国为例探索了提升现有机动车排放时空分辨率的方法，编制了1990-2016年区县尺度机动车高分辨率动态排放清单；最后，研究开发了基于技术演替过程的中国机动车排放动态预测模型，并基于情景分析方法提出了未来中国机动车排放的减排路径。本研究首先通过耦合多个全球及区域机动车数据库，构建了覆盖全球210个国家和地区的机动车基础信息数据库，并在此基础上构建了包含保有量重构、技术分布模拟、排放标准演进等多个模块的全球机动车排放动态表征模型，编制了2000-2017年全球道路机动车排放清单。研究发现，2000-2017年间全球机动车NOx和CO排放量分别下降了2.5%和5.6%，而VOCs、 NH3和一次PM2.5排放量分别上升了13.1%、43.0%和26.2%。在区域层面，美国、欧盟等发达国家排放量呈持续下降趋势，而印度等发展中国家排放持续攀升，机动车保有量增长速度和污染物排放标准进程的差异是不同国家和地区之间排放趋势产生差别的主要因素。研究进一步以中国为例建立了区县尺度高分辨率机动车动态排放清单模型并构建了1990-2016年中国道路机动车高分辨率排放清单，并解析了影响机动车排放时空变化趋势的主要因素。研究发现在机动车排放清单表征模型中纳入气象参数对于提升清单精度具有显著作用，尤其是能够更为精准地表征机动车蒸发排放。最后，研究开发了具备车队排放连续动态预测功能的中国道路机动车排放预测模型，并基于该模型分析了不同情景下中国未来道路机动车排放变化及影响因素。研究指出，推广低碳出行模式、提升新能源车比例和持续加严新车标准是未来实现道路机动车污染减排的主要途径。
High-resolution emission inventory of on-road transportation, which is one of the most important emission sources of air pollution, is the key basis for understanding pollution sources and designing emission mitigation strategies. Lots of efforts have been made on developing global and regional emission inventory of on-road transportation, however, there’re still some insufficiencies in existing researches such as low precision in the simulation of global vehicle fleet technology distribution and emission factors, lack of dynamic methods in emission estimation of global inventories, as well as insufficient spatio-temporal resolution and dynamic degree for regional inventories. To address this issue, this work first develops a technology-based dynamic vehicle emission model at global scale, and a dynamic emission inventory of global on-road transportation during 2000-2017 is developed using this model. Furthermore, methods of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of current emission inventory of on-road transportation is explored in this work, in which China is taken as an example. A high-resolution dynamic emission inventory of China’s on-road transportation during 2000-2017 is then developed at county level. Finally, a dynamic emission projection model for on-road transportation in China is set up based on vehicles’ technology evolvement, the future emission mitigation pathway of China's on-road transportation is proposed on basis of scenario analysis.In this work, a global vehicle database including 210 countries and regions is first established by coupling the best available data from various global and regional database. On basis of this database, the technology-based dynamic vehicle emission model at global scale, in which vehicle ownership reconstruction, technology distribution simulation, emission standard evolution and other modules are included, is developed, and then global emission inventory of on-road transportation during 2000-2017 is developed. We find that from 2000 to 2017, global vehicle emissions of NOx and CO have decreased by 2.5% and 5.6%, while VOCs, NH3 and primary PM2.5 emissions have increased by 13.1%, 43.0% and 26.2%, respectively. Regionally, emissions in developed countries such as the United States and the European Union show a persistent decreasing, but emissions in developing countries such as India keep increasing. Differences in emission trends among different countries and regions are mainly caused by the variety of the growth rate of vehicle ownership and the progress of pollutant emission standards. High-resolution dynamic emission model for China’s road transportation is furthermore developed, and a county-level emission inventory of vehicles in China during 1990-2016 is then built. On basis of this emission inventory developed in this work, main factors influencing the spatio-temporal variation trend of vehicle emissions are analyzed, finding that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the vehicle emission model could significantly improve the accuracy of emission inventory, especially in estimation of emissions from vehicles’ evaporating process. Finally, the emission projection model for China’s on-road transportation, which could continuously and dynamically forecast vehicle emissions, is developed, and future changes as well as influencing factors of emissions of on-road transportation in China are analyzed under different using this model. Results in this work indicate that promotion of low-carbon travel patterns, increase in proportion of new energy vehicles and continuously upgrade of vehicle emission standards are the main approaches to mitigate emissions of on-road transportation in the future.
