深圳作为我国重要沿海城市,经常受到台风以及风暴潮危害,因此对深圳近海风暴潮的影响因素及有关过程机制进行研究具有重要的现实意义。为研究深圳近海风暴潮及假潮,基于ROMS(区域海洋模式系统),本论文建立了一个以深圳近海为中心三层嵌套的局地海洋模式。首先研究2018年台风“山竹”过境情况,模拟结果与观测结果基本一致。基于台风“山竹”,进行一系列参数调整试验,研究台风登陆地点、登陆角度、尺度、强度以及移动速度的改变对风暴潮及其分布的影响。结果表明,在深圳西边登陆的台风比在深圳东边登陆的台风产生的最高风暴潮高1.5 m左右,由东往西登陆深圳的台风比由南向北登陆深圳的台风产生的最高风暴潮高1.0 m左右。台风尺度增加15%,最高风暴潮上升0.2 m左右。台风强度增强15%,最高风暴潮上升0.4 m左右。台风的移动速度总体上对风暴潮的影响不大,其对风暴潮的影响还与登陆地点有关。当台风在深圳西边或者东边登陆时,台风移动速度增加30%,深圳沿海各海湾的最高风暴潮上升0.2 m到0.6 m。当台风先后经过深圳各海湾时,台风移动速度增加30%,珠江口的最高风暴潮降低0.1 m左右,大鹏湾和大亚湾的最高风暴潮上升0.2 m左右,这与各海湾水体重新分布到稳定状态的时间和台风作用时间有关。上述各风暴潮影响因素的研究结果对深圳市风暴潮灾害防范有着重要的现实意义。通过分析实测数据、理论计算和数值模拟,验证和模拟了台风“山竹”过后的假潮现象。实测假潮周期在深圳湾、大鹏湾和大亚湾分别为3.2 h、3.2 h和3.7 h,振幅为20 cm到30 cm;理想半封闭水体理论估算的假潮周期分别为3.4 h、3.0 h和3.5 h;模式模拟的假潮周期分别为3.0 h、3.5 h和4.0 h,三个湾的模拟假潮振幅为22 cm左右。在此基础上给出台风“山竹”过后假潮在各海湾内的水位变化,展示了假潮的变化过程,同时也说明台风“山竹”过后的假潮是由台风导致水体堆积后引发的共振生成的。风向对假潮类型有着直接的影响,当风场使水体堆积在海湾垂直于湾口方向的某一侧时,将产生封闭水体的假潮;当风场使水体堆积在海湾沿湾口方向的某一侧时,将产生半封闭水体的假潮。当台风在深圳西边登陆时,台风激发的假潮振幅更高。
As an important coastal city in China, Shenzhen is frequently affected by typhoons and induced storm surges. It is of great practical significance to study influencing factors, processes and mechanisms associated with storm surges along the coastal regions of Shenzhen. Based on ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), a three-layer nested regional ocean model in the area of the coastal regions of Shenzhen is developed in this paper to study storm surges and associated seiches.Firstly, a case study of Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018 is carried out, and model results are consistent with observations. Based on Typhoon Mangkhut, a series of parameter adjustment tests are carried out to study influences of landing location, size, intensity, and moving direction and speed on storm surges generated water level and its distributions. Our results have shown that, under the same conditions, the maximum storm surge of a typhoon landing in the west of Shenzhen is about 1.5 meters higher than that of the typhoon landing in the east of Shenzhen, and that of the typhoon approaching Shenzhen from east to west is about 1.0 meters higher than that of the typhoon approaching Shenzhen from south to north. As the size of a typhoon increases by 15%, the maximum storm surge increases by about 0.2 meters. As the intensity of a typhoon increases by 15%, the maximum storm surge increases by about 0.4 meters. On the whole, the moving speed of a typhoon does not have significant influence on storm surges, and its influence on storm surges is related to the location of landing. When a typhoon makes landfall to the west or east of Shenzhen, and the moving speed of the typhoon increases by 30%, the maximum storm surge in each bay along the Shenzhen coast increases by 0.2 to 0.6 meters. When a typhoon passes through all bays of Shenzhen successively, and the moving speed of a typhoon increases by 30%, the maximum storm surge in the Pearl River Estuary decreases by about 0.1 meters, and increases by about 0.2 meters in Dapeng Bay and Daya Bay. This is related to the time for the water mass redistribution to a steady state within a bay and the typhoon action time. The research results of the influencing factors have great practical significance for the prevention of storm surges disaster in Shenzhen.In this study, we have verified and simulated seiches after typhoon Mangkhut passage using measured data, theoretical calculations and model simulations. The periods of the measured seiches in Shenzhen Bay, Dapeng Bay and Daya Bay are 3.2 h, 3.2 h and 3.7 h respectively; the amplitudes of the measured seiches ranges from 20 cm to 30 cm. The periods of the seiches estimated for the ideal semi-closed bay are 3.4 h, 3.0 h and 3.5 h. The periods of the simulated seiches are 3.0 h, 3.5 h and 4.0 h respectively, and the amplitudes of the simulated seiches in the three bays are about 22 cm. On this basis, the water level changing in the bays after typhoon Mangkhut are obtained, which shows the change process of the seiches. It also shows that the seiches after Typhoon Mangkhut were generated due to the resonance caused by the typhoon-induced accumulation of water. Wind direction has a direct effect on the type of seiches. When the wind field causes the water to accumulate on one side of the bay perpendicular to the bay mouth, it produces closed water body type seiches. On the other hand, when the wind field causes the water to accumulate on one side of the bay along the bay mouth, it produces semi-closed water body type seiches. When a typhoon makes landfall in the west of Shenzhen, the triggered seiches is of the highest amplitude.