近十年来，随着全球气候变暖和气候变化，绿色建筑作为一种兼顾节能低碳和健康舒适的综合解决方案在世界范围内得到了广泛的推广。已有研究中，目前还没有一种系统的方法将社会和技术问题联系起来，量化分析建筑性能差异的原因。在城市层面上，也缺乏更系统或更全面的定性和定量方法来评价每项政策或战略的效果或影响。为此，本论文通过引入系统动力学方法，构建建筑尺度和城市尺度的研究模型，探索导致绿色建筑性能差异的原因和可提升绿色建筑发展质量的量化方法。论文首先回顾了以往有关绿色建筑的文献，包括绿色建筑的定义、国际发展历史、国际各城市的相关政策以及过往研究中发现的绿色建筑绩效差距，并回顾和分析了可持续建筑领域中系统动力学的相关文献。其次，针对建筑实际性能差异成因的时空分散和耦合关联特性，提出了一整套基于系统动力学的绿色建筑性能差异分析方法，用于揭示绿色建筑实际性能差异的产生机理、制定缩小性能差异的有效策略。提出了一种参与式系统动力学方法，通过建立因果回路图，可深入挖掘分散于各利益相关方的性能差异因素，分析各因素的相互关联及其对性能差异的影响，揭示绿色办公建筑在各因素直接与间接作用下产生性能差异的动态机理。第三，提出了基于系统动力学及性能模拟相结合的绿色建筑性能差异量化评估方法，解决了之前只关注技术层面而忽略人文层面所带来的建筑性能差异的问题, 并将所提出的系统性方法在中国上海某绿色办公楼中加以应用，包括案例研究的描述、通过参与式建模开发的因果回路图绘制、模型验证、模拟结果和讨论。研究发现，供应链中存在绩效差距，特别是各阶段之间的绩效差距，供应链利益相关者之间的有效沟通有助于减少绩效差距。整合建筑设计是提高绿色建筑设计质量的有效途径。在考虑管理成本的情况下，多重策略的效果比单一策略更为有效。该方法在中国和英国广泛不同的案例中的应用表明，它在另一个国家背景下的应用没有固有的局限性。第四，构建了城市尺度研究模型，并将其应用于北京2035绿色建筑发展规划政策研究，包括案例描述、模型验证、定性和定量结果以及讨论。运用风险与后果分析框架，分析了北京市绿色建筑发展的预期风险和非预期风险及其后果。对具体的政策情景进行了描述、研究和讨论，并为决策者提供了研究建议。同时与新加坡的住宅建筑绿色发展政策优化进行了比较性研究。论文的研究成果可为复杂因素影响下的建筑尺度和城市尺度的绿色建筑和节能减排研究提供参考。

In the past decade, with global warming and climate change, green building has been widely promoted in the world as a comprehensive solution that takes into account energy saving, low carbon, and health and comfort. In the existing studies, there is no systematic method to link social and technical problems and quantitatively analyze the causes of the building performance gap. At the urban level, there is also a lack of more systematic or comprehensive qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate the effect or impact of each policy or strategy. Therefore, this thesis proposes system dynamics methods, constructs the research model of building scale and city scale, and explores the causes for the performance gap of green buildings and the quantitative methods to improve the effective development of green buildings.Firstly, this thesis reviewed past literature on green buildings, including definition, history of development internationally, related policies in various international cities, and performance gap of green buildings found in past studies. In this thesis, system dynamics is the backbone of proposed methodologies in the field of building scale and city scale, therefore literature about systems dynamics in the sustainable building sector is reviewed and analyzed. On this basis, systematic analysis methods are proposed to solve the above problems, and the proposed theoretical models are tested by constructing local and international cases.Secondly, in the study of building scale, based on the integration of system dynamics and performance simulation, a quantitative evaluation method of green building performance gap is constructed, and a general stock flow model is established, which solves the problem of only focusing on technical related causes but ignoring social related causes of building performance gap. The proposed method is applied to a green office building in Shanghai, China, and all information is documented in detail including the description of the case study, CLDs developed via participatory modeling, validation, simulation results and discussion. The proposed methodology in this part is collaborative work between the University of College London （UCL） and Tsinghua University. Thus the other case study in the UK is not documented in detail in this thesis but the results comparison between the two cases is included and discussed. This part provides a possible solution to help clients to improve actual building performance and minimize the building performance gap from project management point of view. Performance gaps are found to exist along the supply chain, especially between stages, and effective communication between stakeholders along the supply chain could help to reduce them. The integrated building design is a good approach to increase the quality of design. In reality, integrated design should be executed throughout the whole process and the facility management team should be provided with an opportunity to share their options in the process. The effect of multiple strategies is found to be more effective than a single strategy, especially when management cost is taken into consideration. The application of the framework in widely differing cases in China and the UK shows that there is no inherent limitation to its application in another national context. Thirdly, the urban scale research model is constructed and applied to the policy study of green building development planning for Beijing 2035, including case description, model validation, qualitative and quantitative results and discussion. At the same time, a comparative study with Singapore‘s residential green development policy optimization is carried out. Using the risk and consequence analysis framework, this paper analyzes the expected and unexpected risks and consequences of green building development in Beijing. For the city of Beijing, the primary energy use of urban buildings may peak around 2026, and energy-related CO2 emissions may peak around 2022. Detailed policy scenarios are described, studied, and discussed in this thesis, and recommendations draw from studies are provided for policymakers. For the city of Singapore, Singapore may reach its upper limits of residential buildings around 2026 and 2027 if no other policy intervention. The energy consumption from private houses is as important as public houses though the total amount of private houses is not that much. Scenarios on energy structure in Singapore are studied and discussed. The application in different international cities sows that the mechanism could be applied to other more international cities and it should be noted that this framework needs to be adapted based on the local situation including but not limited to the structure of the local building market, energy structure, and policy frame. Furthermore, data availability is very essential and lacking data may disable some functions in the model, inducing that more scenarios could be simulated.The proposed methodology in the thesis in both building and city scale is well proved, and their adaptabilities have been verified in various case studies. In the future, the research can be extended to other types of green buildings and more cities by means of the app or online computing. It is hoped that the research in this paper can be beneficial to scholars, policymakers, and stakeholders in the construction industry in policy-making and practical engineering performance improvement.