综合能源系统作为未来能源网络发展的核心，其演化机理分析尤为重要，在各种能源政策机制指导下，综合能源系统发展将何去何从值得关注。然而，目前缺乏一套从中长期战略的角度指导综合能源系统演化发展的理论方法。为此，本文旨在提出一套系统性分析方法研究综合能源系统演化机理，从经济驱动和政策激励的角度提出建设性方案，分析其对于综合能源系统演化动态过程的影响，从而调节综合能源系统生产及消费结构。主要成果如下：（1）基于经典博弈论和演化博弈论，提出以面向工程系统演化机理分析的演化工程博弈建模及分析方法一般原理。首先总结了综合能源系统应用问题四大特点，从群体结构复杂程度出发分类构建博弈模型，然后分析参与者策略演化轨迹，并求解演化均衡及稳定条件，最后确定了演化驱动因素。（2）面向考虑多主体多阶段的无差异群体演化工程博弈，提出了时空发展两阶段演化工程博弈模型，从时间维度提出综合能源系统发展初期和后期两阶段演化博弈模型，从空间维度提出集中式和分布式两阶段演化博弈模型。提出了基于现代控制理论的演化轨迹优化方法，减少轨迹振荡次数。（3）面向考虑群体竞争关系和社会网络结构的演化工程博弈，提出了静态及动态网络结构下的演化动态仿真方法。提出分场景扩展的演化博弈模型，将博弈中的单一群体扩展到多个群体。提出以清洁低碳为目标的动态网络结构重连规则，及考虑条件约束的动态网络结构下的演化动态仿真方法。（4）提出了一系列适应于综合能源系统演化发展的激励政策机制设计方法。提出了动态补贴税收激励政策，补贴税收自平衡激励政策机制，动态可再生能源配额激励政策，减轻政府财政压力，提高经济效率。提出了基于PPP模式的综合能源系统合作方案，论证了方案可行性。（5）基于以上理论研究成果，研究了城市供暖系统演化问题，精确提高了电供暖比例；研究了光伏发电与电动汽车充电合作行为演化问题，为光伏消纳提供了新思路；研究了考虑消费者类型的电动汽车充电站建设演化问题，推动电动汽车充电站投资建设；研究了可再生能源渗透演化问题，有效提高现阶段我国可再生能源发电比例。研究表明方法具有普适性和可拓展性，分析结果可为生产者、消费者、投资者、政府等提供发展决策参考。
Integrated energy system is the core of the future energy network. Thus, the evolution mechanism analysis of the integrated energy system is particularly important. And we need to pay attention to the future development trajectory of integrated energy system under the guidance of various energy policy mechanisms. However, currently there is a lack of theoretical methods to analyze the long-term evolutionary mechanism of integrated energy system and provide the guidance for it. Therefore, to adjust the production and consumption structure of the integrated energy system, this thesis aims to put forward a set of systematic analysis methods to study the evolution mechanism of the integrated energy system considering the impact of economic drive and policy incentive. The main contributions are listed as follows:(1) Based on classical game theory and evolutionary game theory, a systematic evolutionary engineering game modeling and analysis method is proposed for the evolutionary mechanism analysis of general engineering systems. Firstly, we summarized the four characteristics of the application problems in integrated energy systems, and the game models were divided into three categories according to the complexity of populations. Then, the evolution trajectory of strategies was analyzed, and the evolutionary equilibriums and stability conditions were solved. Finally, the driving factors of integrated energy system evolution were determined(2) The evolutionary engineering game models of undifferentiated population considering multi-groups and multi-stages were constructed. From the perspective of unbalanced time and spatial development, the two-stage evolutionary game model of early stage and late stage, as well as the centralized and distributed two-stage evolutionary game model were proposed. Based on modern control theory, an evolutionary trajectory optimization algorithm was proposed to reduce the trajectory oscillation times. (3) The evolutionary engineering game models considering competitive relations and social network structure of the players in the populations were constructed. And the simulation methods were presented under static linking and dynamic linking network respectively. In order to take more than one population into account, the scenario expansion evolutionary game models were proposed. Furthermore, the condition constrained update rule of dynamic network linking was proposed in the simulation of dynamic linking networked evolutionary game models to limit the carbon emission in the network.(4) A series of policy regulation design methods adapted to the sustainable evolution and development of integrated energy system were proposed. It included dynamic taxation and subsidy policy, balanced subsidy and taxation policy, and dynamic renewable energy quota scheme. These policies help to reduce the pressure on government finances. And a novel cooperation design in integrated energy system was proposed based on the public-private partnership (PPP) mode. (5) Based on the proposed theoretical analysis and policy regulation design methods, the evolution and development process of urban heating systems was studied and the proportion of electric heating was improved accurately. A public-private partnership program was designed which encourages investment companies to cooperate with residents by setting up rooftop solar panels and receiving payment from electric vehicle users. It provides a new idea for solar energy consumption. The planning of EV charging stations considering consumer types is studied to promote the construction of EV charging stations. And the penetration of renewable energy under the dynamic renewable quota scheme was studied. The results showed that the renewable energy power generation was promoted effectively. The proposed research method in this thesis has universality and extensibility, and the analysis results can provide strategy reference for related producers, consumers, investors and governments.
