太阳能光伏发电是我国实现2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和目标的重要途径，也是控制大气污染、保障能源安全供应的内在要求。面向光伏发电实现高质量发展与大规模并网的现实需要，本研究旨在基于空间差异和时间动态，系统回答光伏发电可持续发展的两个问题：在何时何地有多少技术可行、经济平价及电网兼容的光伏发电潜力，以及如何从光伏与环境的双向影响角度优化光伏开发。研究结果可服务于光伏发电产业政策，并为从源头控制大气污染和实现碳减排提供决策依据。技术可行开发潜力方面，本研究构建了基于大数据的地理技术资源评估模型。该模型在高空间分辨率下量化考察了空间地理与资源限制因素，解析了光伏阵列技术参数的空间差异，逐小时计算了多因素影响下光伏出力的变动特征。结果表明中国2020年技术可行潜力达到136.0 PWh，相当于同年电力需求的17.3倍。3.5%的技术潜力可满足2060年相对于2020年电力需求增量的50%。经济平价且电网兼容潜力方面，本研究构建了平价光伏并网潜力评估模型。该模型基于对经济和技术参数的动态化和空间化表征，耦合学习曲线模型解析了2020年至2060年光伏成本与经济潜力的时空演变特征，构建了光伏相对煤电平价上网时间的空间分析方法。基于光伏的成本优势，研究开发了逐小时电力调度模型以评估“光伏+储能电站”将平价光伏并入电网的潜力。结果表明全国范围平价上网将在2023年实现，平价光伏在2030和2060年将能满足31.9%和44.8%的电力需求。研究结论为推动光伏发电突破成本与并网瓶颈，持续发挥引领作用提供参考。环境要素对光伏的影响方面，研究构建了多变量逐步线性回归模型，对我国光伏潜力长期变动性的驱动因素进行分析。研究依据再分析数据解析了1995至2019年光伏发电潜力的变动趋势，并量化了空气污染与气象因素的长期变动对光伏出力的影响，评估了在气象不利条件下空气污染控制措施对光伏发电的协同效益，为我国空气质量达标与碳中和目标的协同发展路径提供依据。光伏对环境系统的影响方面，本研究构建了生命周期时空动态评估方法，系统核算了2009至2019年全球光伏产业的环境影响与环境效益。研究基于全产业链各环节的全球布局与进出口贸易对环境影响进行空间计算，对能耗物耗等技术参数进行时间动态表征，解析了全球光伏产业的环境影响、环境效益和净效益的时空分布特征。研究结果表明中国承担了全球光伏产业二氧化碳排放的56%。研究结论为最大化光伏环境效益、优化光伏生产端和应用端的全球布局奠定基础。

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation is one of the most important measures to achieve carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 for China. It is also an inherent requirement for controlling air pollution and ensuring safe energy supply. Facing the practical needs of realizing high-quality development and large-scale grid integration of solar PV power, this study is intended to answer two questions regarding the sustainable development of solar PV from the spatial difference and temporal dynamics perspectives: when, where and how many solar PV potentials could be reached technically feasibly, cost effectively and grid compatibly, and how to optimize solar PV development considering the two-way interaction mechanism between solar PV and the environmental system. The results of the study lay foundation for the policy making of the solar PV power generation industry, and provide reference for decision-making on controlling air pollution from the source and realizing carbon emission reduction.In terms of technical potential, the study constructed a geotechnical resource evaluation model based on big data. The model considered spatial geography and resource constraints, analyzed the spatial differences of the PV array technical parameters. With full consideration of the impacting factors on efficiency, the model quantified the variation characteristics of PV output on an hourly basis. Results suggest that the annual electricity generating potential of China reaches 136.0 PWh in 2020, equivalent to 17.3 times of the electricity demand in the same year. Utilizing about 3.5% of the solar power potential could meet half of the electricity demand increase from 2020 to 2060.In terms of cost-competitive and grid-compatible potential, the study constructed a geo-economic evaluation model, which was further coupled with learning curve model to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the solar PV power cost and the economic potential from 2020 to 2060. The study analyzed the spatial distribution of parity time for solar power compared to coal fired power. An hourly power dispatch model was further developed to evaluate the potential of combined solar power and storage system to integrate cost-competitive solar power into the grid. The results show that the national grid parity of solar power compared to coal fired power will be realized before 2023, and the cost-competitive solar power will be able to meet 31.9% and 44.8% of the electricity demand in 2030 and 2060 respectively after coupled with storage facilities. The findings provide reference for promoting the solar PV power to break through the bottleneck of cost-competitiveness and grid integration, and playing the leading role of solar PV.In terms of the impact of environmental factors for solar PV, the study constructed a multi-variable stepwise linear regression model to analyze the driving factors of the long-term variability of the solar PV potentials of China. The study analyzed the changing trend of solar PV power generation potentials from 1995 to 2019 based on the reanalysis data, quantified the impact of long-term changes in air pollution and meteorological factors on solar PV output, and assessed the benefits of air pollution control measures on solar PV power generation under adverse meteorological conditions. The co-benefits of air pollution control for solar PV revealed in the study provide basis for the coordinated development path to meet the air quality improvement and carbon neutrality goals in China.In terms of the impacts of solar PV on the environmental system, this study constructed a spatialized and temporally dynamic assessment method from a life-cycle perspective. The environmental costs and benefits of the global solar PV industry from 2009 to 2019 were calculated systematically. The spatialized environmental impacts were calculated based on the global layout of all steps in the entire industrial chain and the international trade. The evolution of the environmental impacts was characterized by the temporal dynamics of technical parameters such as energy consumption and material consumption intensities. The temporal and spatial distributions of the global solar PV industry's environmental impacts, environmental benefits, and net benefits were analyzed using the integrated model. It was found that China was responsible for 56% of the global PV industry's carbon dioxide emissions. The conclusions lay the foundation for maximizing the environmental benefits of solar PV and optimizing the global layout of solar PV both in the fields of production and application.