气候变化与大气污染相互影响、相互作用，对人类社会产生了深远影响，改变了居民日常生活中的一系列行为。本文一方面借助微观实证的方法深入探究了气候变化与大气污染对居民行为的影响，另一方面结合可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型分析了我国碳减排路径上因居民行为改变对经济发展产生的影响，对综合评估我国气候变化与大气污染治理政策所带来的社会收益与成本有重要参考价值。首先，本文考察了气候变化背景下自然灾害频发对居民储蓄率及消费支出的影响。通过整理发生在中国大陆的自然灾害数据，并与住户调查数据相匹配，本文发现自然灾害会通过改变居民的风险预期，降低城镇居民的储蓄率，增加食物以及与提升生活品质相关的消费支出；相反较贫困或较为依赖农业生产的家庭的储蓄率下降不明显，但会增加教育以及交通通讯方面的支出，造成这种城乡差异的一个主要原因在于家庭收入和财产结构不同。针对大气污染的微观影响，本文从居民室内行为和室外行为的角度出发，研究了两个独特的微观数据库：一是包含10万用户的网络直播用户数据集，二是全国百余个地级市的日度城内出行强度数据集。通过结合风向、地理分组及周边城市污染物浓度信息构建工具变量，发现大气污染会显著增加居民室内网络使用时间，并著降低居民室外出行强度，其影响由于不同城市间产业结构、基础设施水平的不同而具有显著的异质性。在模型部分，本文基于中国经济环境CGE模型，结合DICE及空间计量模型，构建了气候变化与大气污染的居民行为模块，利用本文微观实证以及一系列学术界前沿文献，对模型中的居民行为参数进行校准，得到微观修正后的CGE模型。通过在模型中引入内生性碳税、清洁能源发电补贴等政策，基于电力市场结构变化及负排放技术应用，本文进而分析了我国2030年碳达峰以及2060年碳中和的可行发展路径，分析了碳减排路径上由于居民行为改变所导致的消费支出以及产业产值的变化趋势，例如因居民文娱服务支出增加所带动的住宿和餐饮业的增长。基于上述研究，本文建议政府应重视由于气候变化和大气污染对居民行为的影响所导致的地区间与城乡间发展不均衡的风险，重视碳中和道路上由于居民需求侧变动所影响的相关产业的发展。
Interacting with each other, climate change and air pollution have a profound impact on human society and change a series of residents' behaviors in their daily life. On the one hand, this paper deeply explores the impact of climate change and air pollution on residents by empirical methods; on the other hand, it analyzes the influence of residents' behavior changes on economic development along the path of carbon-abatement in China by the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. It provides a reference for the comprehensive evaluation of social benefits and costs brought by China's mitigation policies.First, this paper examines the impact of climate-related disasters on household saving rate and consumption by combing different datasets. The results show that, after a disaster, urban households decrease their savings and increase their food, fitness, and life quality expenditures, while rural households spend less but invest more on education and mobility, especially those that are poorer or have higher operating income or land assets. A major explanation for the rural-urban difference is the heterogeneous income and asset structure.To further discuss the micro-impact of air pollution, this paper utilizes two unique databases consisting of users' information on a Chinese Live Streaming Platform and inter-city Mobility Index. The Instrument Variable is constructed by the wind direction, geographical classification, and surrounding cities' pollutants concentration. Major findings are that air pollution significantly increases people's indoor use of the Internet and decreases outdoor movement intensity. These effects are heterogeneous across cities and closely correlated with industrial structure and infrastructure level.In the model part, the paper sets up a micro-level modified CGE model by introducing the resident module correlated with climate change and air pollution. It is based on the Economic-Environmental CGE Model of China, combined with DICE model and spatial econometric approach, and calibrated by micro-level findings. Furthermore, by introducing endogenous carbon tax, renewable energy subsidies, and negative emissions technologies into the CGE model, this paper analyzes different carbon abatement scenarios in China, aiming to hit peak emissions before 2030 and for carbon neutrality by 2060. The micro-behavior changes predicted by the model will influence the industrial structure. For example, the increase in recreational expenditure will stimulate the development of hotels and restaurants.Based on the above research, this paper suggests that the government should pay attention to the risk of uneven development between regions and between urban and rural areas as a result of the micro-impact of climate change and air pollution, and concentrate on the effect of demand-side changes on the development of industries.
