道路交通已经成为中国能源消耗和碳排放的重要来源。随着中国2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和目标的提出，中国汽车产业节能减排工作的重要性更加凸显。如何摆脱汽车产业对于传统化石燃料的依赖，将直接影响中国碳达峰和碳中和目标的实现。目前中国汽车产业正处在快速变革时期，电动化、智能化、网联化的发展趋势将使得车辆特征、相关政策发生显著变化，从而将对车用能源消费和碳排放产生重要影响。因此需要建立符合中国目前国情的车用能源和碳排放核算模型，对现有规划和政策进行评估，判断汽车产业能否助力实现中国的碳排放目标。本研究完整梳理了中国车辆特征，并基于经济发展、政策法规、技术进步等因素对中国未来汽车市场的规模、车辆使用强度、车用能源类型、车辆燃料消耗率等特征进行了判断和预测。同时，建立了中国车用能源消费和碳排放核算模型。根据对中国车辆特征的相关判断，通过设定不同的情景，对2060年前中国车用能源消费和碳排放进行了计算，并以此评估了道路交通对中国2030年实现碳达峰，2060年实现碳中和的贡献程度。本研究进一步强化了对油耗法规、双积分政策、产业技术路线图和技术进步等对中国汽车产业发展影响的研究，使得研究结果具有更强的实际价值。本研究的主要结论有：（1）中国汽车市场仍具有巨大潜力，但随着经济发展进入新常态以及中国人口增速的放缓，市场将逐步趋于饱和。中国汽车销量峰值预计将为3788万辆，到2060年汽车保有量约为5.2亿辆。新能源汽车和智能网联汽车技术的发展使得车辆特征发生了显著变化，从而将进一步带来车用能源结构和温室气体排放的变化。（2）双积分政策在推动新能源汽车发展的同时，使得企业油耗目标被放宽，但无论是企业严格遵守油耗法规，或是受到双积分政策影响、油耗法规被放宽，中国道路交通碳排放均可以在2030年前实现碳达峰。预计到2030年，中国车队产生的碳排放将达到1700±60 Mt CO2,eq；自动驾驶汽车的发展则可能使得乘用车碳排放结果出现-2%至4%的波动。（3）为了实现2060年碳中和目标，客观上要求2050年即需要实现新售车辆100%的电动化转型；在此情景下，2020年至2060年可将累计带来约29亿吨柴油和39亿吨汽油的节省。随着车用燃料的清洁化发展，新能源汽车发展对于车用能源结构和碳排放的影响将更加突出。到2060年，自动驾驶汽车的发展可使得乘用车车队碳排放出现-4%至23%的波动。

Road transportation has become an important source of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. With the 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutral target proposed, the importance of energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s automotive industry has become more prominent. How to get rid of the dependence on traditional fossil fuels will directly affect the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutral goals. At present, China's automotive industry is undergoing a period of rapid change. The development trend of electrification, intelligence, and connectivity will cause significant changes in vehicle characteristics and related policies, which will have an important impact on vehicle energy consumption and carbon emissions. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a vehicle energy demand and carbon emissions model that meets China's current status, to evaluate effectiveness of existing planning and policies, and determine whether the automotive industry can help achieve China's carbon emission targets.This research comprehensively sorts out the relevant data on the characteristics of Chinese vehicles, and forecasts the features of China’s future automotive market, such as the scale of future automotive market, vehicle usage intensity, vehicle fuel types, and vehicle fuel consumption rates based on factors such as economic development, policies and regulations, and technological progress. At the same time, a model for China's vehicle energy consumption and carbon emissions is established. Based on the relevant judgments on the characteristics of Chinese vehicles, by setting different scenarios, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of China’s vehicles are calculated. The time span is from 2015 to 2060. Based on the reuslts, the contribution of road transportation to China’s carbon peak in 2030 and carbon nurtrality in 2060 is evaluated. This research further strengthens the influence of fuel consumption rate regulations, dual-credit policy, industrial technology roadmaps and technology progress on the development of China's automotive industry. This makes the research results more practical.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) China’s automotive market still has great potentials. With the economic development entering a new normal stage and the slowdown of China’s population growth, the peak of China’s vehicle sales are expected to be 37.88 million, and by 2060, vehicle stock will be about 520 million. The developments of new energy vehicle and intelligent connected vehicle technology have caused significant changes in vehicle characteristics, which will further bring about changes in vehicle fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. (2) To promote the development of new energy vehicles, the dual-credit policy has made it easier for companies to meet the fuel consumption rate standards. However, whether the company strictly abides by fuel consumption regulations, or is affected by the dual-credit policy with easier fuel consumption requirement, carbon emissions from vehicle fleet can reach its peak by 2030. It is estimated that by 2030, the carbon emissions generated by the China’s vehicle fleet will reach 1700±60 Mt CO2,eq. The development of autonomous vehicles may cause passenger car carbon emissions results to fluctuate by -2% to 4%. (3) In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it is objectively required to achieve 100% electrification of newly sold vehicles by 2050. In this scenario, from 2020 to 2060, a total of about 2.9 billion tons of diesel and 3.9 billion tons of gasoline will be saved. As vehicle fuels become cleaner, the development of new energy vehicles will have a more prominent impact on vehicle energy consumption and carbon emissions. By 2060, the development of autonomous cars can make passenger car fleet carbon emissions fluctuate from -4% to 23%.