近50年来黄河流域气候变化显著，整体呈暖干化趋势。同时，人类活动强烈，截至2010年，流域水保工程累计治理面积达14.4万km2，退耕还林还草面积达1.6万km2。黄河流域水资源日趋紧张，花园口站2000年代天然径流仅为1960年代的79%。因此，科学认识黄河流域生态水文变化及其驱动因素，评价气候变化、生态修复与水土保持工程的影响，对黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展具有重要意义。本论文建立了基于生态水文过程的分布式模型，开展了黄河中上游地区1960-2015年长序列生态水文变化过程模拟，分析了水文要素和生态要素的变化及其驱动因素。论文首先基于气象水文观测数据，分析了黄河流域的径流变化。其次，比较和评价了陆面-水文耦合模型CLM-GBHM和原陆面模型CLM4.0对黄河流域产汇流过程的模拟能力；并发展了水保工程水文影响模拟的参数化方案。之后，基于改进后模型的模拟结果，分析了气候变化、植被变化以及坡面水保工程对黄河流域径流、蒸散发、土壤水等水文要素的影响。最后模拟分析了自然状况下黄河流域的植被变化规律及其影响因素，比较了自然植被与实际植被状况下的水文响应差异。模型评价结果表明，CLM-GBHM的产汇流方案优于CLM4.0，前者可更好的模拟黄河流域径流、水储量的动态变化。本文建立的坡面水保工程参数化方案，将黄河流域主要干支流年径流模拟的均值误差由+40%下降至±20%以内。针对水文变化及其影响因素的分析表明，2000-2015年相较于1960-1979年，花园口站天然径流减少100.2亿m3 yr-1（-15.2%），气候变化、植被变化、坡面工程的贡献占比分别为37%、34%、29%。蒸散发对气候变化更敏感，径流及根区土壤水对植被变化更敏感。植被变化加剧了局地水量不平衡，导致黄土高原中部地区ET增加（+29 mm yr-1）、径流与生长季根区土壤水减少（-24 mm yr-1、-25%）。针对植被变化及其影响因素的分析表明，2000-2015年相较于1980-1999年，黄河流域生长季植被叶面积指数变化+13%±11%，人类活动对植被变化起主导作用，贡献占比45%-70%。气候变化与大气CO2浓度升高对自然植被变化的贡献占比分别为53%、47%。自然状况下，黄土高原地区生态系统潜在水分利用效率（uWUEp）增加8.1%，根区土壤水含量变化有限。而人类活动影响下的黄土高原uWUEp增加幅度有限（+0.1%），根区土壤含水量减小（-8.5%），部分造林地区uWUEp减少3.1%，植被发生用水胁迫，生态系统长期稳定性面临潜在威胁。

The climate change is significant in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the past 50 years, with a warming and drying trend. At the same time, human activities are complex and intense. By the end of 2010, the total area of soil and water conservation engineering in the YRB had reached 144,000 km2, and the total area of the Grain for Green project had reached 16,000 km2. Consequently, water resources were becoming increasingly scarce, and the natural river discharge at Huayuankou Station in 2000s was only 79% of that in the 1960s. Therefore, understanding changes in the ecological and hydrological processes and their controlling factors is of great significance for evaluating and guiding the development of ecological restoration projects, and water planning for social development. This thesis established a distributed process-based eco-hydrological model to simulate the eco-hydrological processes of the YRB from 1960 to 2015; and analyzed the driving factors for hydrological and ecological changes. Firstly, based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data, the thesis analyzed the changes in runoff in the YRB. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of the default land surface model CLM4.0 and the coupled model CLM-GBHM for simulating hydrological processes, and then developed a parameterization scheme for simulating the impact of soil and water conservation engineering. After that, based on the simulation of the improved model, the impacts of climate change, vegetation change, and soil and water conservation engineering on hydrological elements such as runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the YRB were analyzed. Finally, based on the simulation by the dynamic vegetation mode in CLM-GBHM, vegetation change and its drivers under natural conditions were analyzed, and the differences of hydrological impact between natural and actual vegetation conditions were compared.The simulation in the YRB showed that CLM-GBHM simulated hydrolgocal processes are beter than CLM4.0, with beter performence in monthly runoff, and monthly total water storage dynamics. Then, by using the soil and water conservation engineering parameterization scheme, the long-term simulation of runoff change in the YRB has been improved much, with a large reduction of bias from more than +40% to less than ±20%. In terms of hydrological change and its drivers in the YRB, compared with 1960-1979 from 2000-2015, the runoff reduction in Huayuankou was 10.02 billion m3 yr-1 (-15.2%), affected by climate change, vegetation change, and soil and water conservation engineering with contributions of 37%, 34%, and 29% respectively. Futhermore, it found that ET response is more sensitive to climate change, while soil moisture and runoff responses are more sensitive to vegetation change. And the vegetation change in the Loess Plateau caused soil drying. Compared with 1980-1999 in 2000-2015, ET in some afforestation areas increased significantly (+29 mm yr-1), contrastly runoff and root zone soil moisture decreased significantly (-24 mm yr-1 and -25%).Regarding vegetation change and its’ drivers in the YRB, compared with 1980-1999 from 2000-2015, the vegetation leaf area index in growing season increased by +13%±11%. Human activities played a major role after 2000, with a 45%-70% contribution to vegetation changes. Moreover, climate change and elevating CO2 concentration played important roles in the change of natural vegetation (contributing 53% and 47% respectively). The ecosystem potiental underlying water use efficiency (uWUEp) in the loess plateau increased by +8.1% under natural condition. By contrast, the human induced vegetation change in the loess plateau caused soil drying in root zone (-8.5%), with uWUEp increased by only +0.1%. In some afforestation areas, uWUEp decreased by 3.1%, suggesting that afforestation may induce water stress on vegetation, and threaten the long-term ecosystem stability.