摘 要 长期以来，学术界和政策界关注朝鲜安全甚于朝鲜经济问题。然而，研究朝鲜经济政策历史脉络和趋势，不仅有助于判断朝鲜经济发展形势及对政权稳固的支撑程度，更有助于理解其对核武研发和国防安全投入的支持力度、朝鲜与相关大国互信的建立和外交关系的博弈、朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区的安全与稳定。 关于朝鲜经济问题，外界最关注的是朝鲜为什么没能像中国和越南一样进行改革开放以恢复和发展经济。但实际上，自20世纪90年代初期以来，随着前苏联解体和冷战结束，朝鲜安全环境和经济体制受到较大冲击，朝鲜领导人金日成曾着手对经济政策进行调整，第二、三代领导人金正日和金正恩也不同程度继续探索。但是，不同阶段的朝鲜经济政策调整方向、力度和效果差别较大，呈现出明显的阶段性、复杂性和曲折性。本研究基于上述波动性，力图分析具体历史情境下朝鲜经济政策调整的一般规律和主要影响因素。现有文献关于制约朝鲜经济调整的因素，归纳起来有朝核问题说、领导人个性说、外部安全环境说、内部体制和思想僵化说等代表性观点。这些观点所聚焦的变量在某一领导人执政的特定时期或许起主导作用而具有解释力，但不足以充分解释其他时期影响朝鲜经济政策调整的变化。 本文通过文献研究、案例分析和交流调研，系统考察了朝鲜经济发展过程，认为朝鲜内部确立和维护“唯一领导体制”面临的挑战，外部与主要国家博弈的激烈程度两个因素相互作用的结果，是影响朝鲜经济政策调整方向和力度的核心因素。本研究从20世纪90年代朝鲜进行经济政策调整开始，将三位领导人的执政期划分为不同阶段，每个阶段按照确立和维护“唯一领导体制”面临的内部挑战大小、外部与主要国家博弈激烈程度、经济政策调整主要性质和成效进行实证分析，对理论假设进行了检验。 金正恩“唯一领导体制”已基本确立，2018年在核武器开发取得阶段性成果基础上，宣布集中精力进行经济建设，抵御外部制裁和施压的底气和信心更足，发展经济决心较大，可以期待通过有别于中国和越南的“朝鲜式”经济政策调整，实现经济的部分恢复和发展。但受制于维护“唯一领导体制”、应对美韩压力的艰巨性复杂性，未来经济政策调整仍会出现波动和反复。

Abstract For a long time, academic and policy circles have paid more attention to DPRK's security than its economy. However, the study of the historical context and trend of DPRK's economic policy is not only helpful to judge the situation of DPRK's economic development and the degree of support for the stability of the regime, but also helpful to understand its support for nuclear weapons research and development and national defense security investment, the establishment of mutual trust and the game of diplomatic relations between DPRK and the relevant powers，and the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. With regard to DPRK's economic problems, the outside world is most concerned about why DPRK has failed to carry out reform and opening up to restore and develop its economy, just like China and Vietnam. But in fact, since the early 1990s, with the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, the security environment and economic system of DPRK have been greatly impacted. Kim Il Sung, the leader of DPRK, has begun to adjust the economic policy, and the second and third generation leaders Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un continue to explore to varying degrees. However, the direction, strength and effect of the economic policy adjustment in different stages are quite different, showing obvious stages, complexity and twists and turns. Based on the above volatility, this paper tries to analyze the general rules and main influencing factors of the adjustment of DPRK's economic policy in specific historical context. The existing literature on the factors restricting DPRK's economic adjustment can be summed up as the representative viewpoints of DPRK's nuclear issue, leader's personality, external security environment, internal system and ideological rigidity. The variables that these views focus on may play a leading role and have explanatory power in a particular period of a leader's ruling, but they are not enough to fully explain the changes that affect the adjustment of DPRK's economic policy in other periods. Through literature research, case analysis and exchange research, this paper systematically investigates the process of DPRK's economic development. It is believed that the core factors influencing the direction and strength of DPRK's economic policy adjustment are the challenges facing the establishment and maintenance of the "unique leadership system" within DPRK and the intensity of the game between the outside and major countries.Since the 1990s when DPRK adjusted its economic policies, this study divides the three leaders' ruling periods into different stages. Each stage makes an empirical analysis according to the size of the internal challenges faced by the establishment and maintenance of the "unique leadership system", the intensity of the external game with major countries, the main methods and effects of economic policy adjustment, and tests the theoretical assumptions. Kim Jong Un's "unique leadership system" has been basically established. In 2018, on the basis of phased achievements in nuclear weapons development, he announced that he would concentrate on economic construction, have more confidence in resisting external sanctions and pressure, and have greater determination in economic development. We can expect to realize partial economic recovery and development through "DPRK style" economic policy adjustment different from China and Vietnam. However, due to the arduousness and complexity of maintaining the "unique leadership system" and coping with the pressure from the United States and South Korea, the future economic policy adjustment will still fluctuate and repeat.