随着网红经济商业模式的崛起，直播带货成为线上销售的新渠道与营销方式，其中内容营销是驱动增长的核心逻辑。2019年，网红经济市场规模预计超五千亿元，同年双十一期间，薇娅直播间实现27亿元交易额，而后直播带货的风口又在疫情居家条件下进一步延续和强化。本文希望借助淘宝直播平台中排名前60位主播的直播数据，以多元回归模型为基础，从商家利益和主播发展视角分别进行研究，即分别对直播带货销量和主播涨粉行为的影响因素进行实证探究。基于商家视角的实证研究中，本文借助多元回归模型，从主播热度、商品类别、主播与商品匹配度三维度验证其对带货销量的影响。基于层次回归模型，研究验证了主播热度与商品匹配度在促进销量作用中的调节作用。最后，考虑到艺人主播属于传统名人行列，本研究验证艺人主播带货效果是否显著优于非艺人主播。商家视角的实证研究结果表明，剔除薇娅、李佳琦两大头部主播之外的样本范围内，直播间的短期和长期热度对销量均具有显著促进作用；此外，头部主播带货零食、日用品等高普及度商品对销量促进作用更为明显，其他主播切入医疗、儿童用品等特定赛道则更有优势；对于全部主播而言，带货匹配度对销量具有显著促进作用，且对于非头部主播尤其明显。在调节作用的验证中，本文发现对于非头部主播而言，商品热度对高普及度商品的销量具有正向调节作用，对特定领域商品却具有反向调节作用；高匹配度则对一切商品的销量具有正向调节作用。对比艺人主播和非艺人主播，本研究发现艺人主播带货护肤、美妆等女生类商品更具优势。在主播视角的实证研究中，本文从主播热度、带货专一性与艺人视角验证对单场直播涨粉行为的影响，结果表明，主播的长短期热度对涨粉绝对值和涨粉比率均具有正向影响；带货专一性对涨粉率影响不显著，但对涨粉绝对值具有负向影响，这与销量视角的冲突结论可为主播及团队提供参考；最后，艺人主播经验证具备天然的高涨粉实力。本研究具备一定的理论意义和实践意义，一方面，延展和丰富了国内主播带货学术研究领域，另一方面，也可为品牌商、网红主播及团队提供高效的管理建议。
With the widespread of Internet celebrity economic business models, live streaming has become a new channel and marketing way for live sales. In 2019, the market size of live commerce was near Rmb 400 billion, and during the “Singles Day”, Viya and her team leveraged a GMV at around Rmb 2.7 billion unprecedentedly. This article hopes to conduct an empirical research from perspectives of maximizing live sales and raising live streamers’ fans growth respectively, based on the dataset of Taobao. With regard to maximizing live sales, the paper verified anchor attractiveness, commodity category and match-up effect as three factors influencing live sales. Further, the essay estimated the moderating effect of anchor’s attractiveness and expertise. Lastly, the article tested whether star streamer behaved better than non-star ones in sales of some categories. The results show that both long-term and short-term attractiveness have positive effects on sales. Moreover, top streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi show positive effect on sales of widely used products, while other streamers show special persuasive effect on specific sectors like healthcare and children’s items. For all anchors, match-up effect enhances live sales. Further, anchor attractiveness has a positive moderating effect on widely used products, but shows the opposite on specific sectors; close match-up effect positively moderates goods sales for most categories. Compared with most streamers, star streamers achieve higher sales in girls’ items, including skin care and makeups.In terms of anchor’s sustainable growth, the present study verified anchor attractiveness, expertise and star identity as influencing factors of streamers’ fans growth. Results indicate that anchor attractiveness contributes to fans growth in both the absolute value and the ratio; while expertise shows negative effect on fans growth, which conflicts with sales perspective and implies the trade-off advice for anchors’ team. Lastly, star with naturally high popularity growth potential is verified.The study has contribution in both theoretical and practical levels. On the one hand, it extends and enriches the academic research on live commerce; on the other hand, it provides valuable managerial suggestions for both brand owners and live streamers.
