高校扩招政策为我国提升全民人口素质和劳动力人力资本水平做出了巨大贡献，缓解了近些年来我国面临的经济增长放缓及就业困难等问题，但关于扩招政策对高等教育回报的影响，已有研究存在一定争议，且主要集中于本专科层面收入角度的教育经济回报探讨，针对研究生教育从综合素质角度出发的研究较为有限，而本文分析了扩招政策对研究生教育回报的影响，并着重分析了个体隐性素质方面教育回报的变化，拓展了扩招政策在研究生教育以及高等教育综合素质回报方面的研究，为国家出台相关政策和个人进行读研或就业选择提供了建议及参考。本文使用中国综合社会调查CGSS2017数据库的研究数据，采用双重差分法分析研究生扩招政策对个体教育回报的影响。基于衡量个体素质的个人胜任力冰山模型，将个体综合素质划分为显性层面的知识与技能，以及隐性层面的价值观、角色定位、自我认知、品质和动机七个维度，通过选取不同变量作为相关综合素质的衡量，分析了扩招政策在以上不同维度方面对教育回报的影响。进一步地，本文还深入探究了扩招政策对教育回报影响效果的调节因素和时间效应。本文的研究发现及结论包括：研究生扩招政策降低了研究生教育在知识与技能方面的收入回报，但影响效果受到年龄变量的削弱,原因可能是研究生教育的基础教学质量有所降低，但年龄削弱了这一影响。扩招政策之后，研究生在政治参与度和社会公正感知方面的教育回报提高，表明研究生教育在培育学生政治意识、公民权利与感知方面的教育质量有所提升。然而扩招对其他隐性素质如幸福感、健康状况、希望/乐观程度、努力/毅力程度等没有显著影响，表明扩招以来研究生教育在相关隐性素质培育方面的教育质量没有同步提升。此外，本文还通过对扩招政策的时间效应分析，阐明扩招政策对高等教育质量提升的效果可能不及预期，其影响效果存在时间滞后性。最后，基于以上结论，文章还分析了当前我国高等教育在培养方案、教学体系以及培育学生全方位综合素质等方面存在的问题，并提出针对性的政策性建议。
The policy of educational expansion in Chinese universities has made great contributions to the improvement of the population quality and the human capital of labor force in China, which has eased the problems of economic growth slowdown and employment issues in recent years. However, there are some controversies on the impact of educational expansion policy as in the return of higher education. Current research mainly focuses on the educational economic return from the perspective of income and the research on graduate education from the perspective of individual’s comprehensive qualities is relatively limited. This paper, therefore, analyzes the influence of educational expansion policy on the return of graduate education, emphasizing on the changes of educational returns in the aspect of individual’s implicit quality, expands the research on graduate education and on comprehensive quality return of higher education, and provides relevant suggestions and advices for governmental policies and personal choices of further education or work.Using data from CGSS2017 (China Comprehensive Social Survey 2017) database, this paper analyzes the impact of graduate educational expansion policy on individual educational return with the difference in difference method. Based on the individual competence iceberg model, individual’s comprehensive qualities are divided into seven dimensions including explicit knowledge and skills, and values, role orientation, self-awareness, quality and motivation in the implicit level. By selecting different variables as the measurement of corresponding quality, this paper analyzes the influence of educational expansion policy on educational returns in these different dimensions. Furthermore, this paper also explores the adjustment factors and time effects of the educational expansion policy on the educational returns.The findings and conclusions of this paper include: the graduate educational expansion policy reduces the educational return of individual income from knowledge and skills perspectives, but the effect is weakened by the age variable. It is possibly caused by the basic teaching quality declination in universities after the expansion, but the impact is weakened by age. After the educational expansion policy, the educational return of graduate education in terms of political participation degree and social justice perception is improved, which shows that the education quality in cultivating students' political consciousness, civil rights and perception has been improved. However, other implicit qualities such as happiness, health status, hope/optimism, effort/perseverance are not significantly affected by the policy, which indicates that the graduate education quality in the cultivation of related implicit quality has not been improved simultaneously. In addition, this paper also expounds that the effect of the policy may not be as good as expected by analyzing the time effect of the educational expansion policy, there is a time lag effect. At last, this paper states problems existing in the current higher education in the aspects of training scheme, teaching system and students’ comprehensive quality cultivation based on the analysis and puts forward pointed political suggestions.
