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关于“一带一路”数字枢纽建设的研究

Development of Digital Hubs for Belt and Road Initiative

作者:淿铄
  • 学号
    2017******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 答辩日期
    2021.05.14
  • 导师
    梁湧
  • 学科名
    工商管理
  • 页码
    65
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    051 经管学院
  • 中文关键词
    数字枢纽, 一带一路, 数字基础设施, 未来基础设施, 数字丝绸之路
  • 英文关键词
    Digital Hub,Belt and Road Initiative,Digital Infrastructure,Future Infrastructure,Digital Silk Road

摘要

疫情传播已经影响到了生活的方方面面,突发事件挑战着产业和部门运作灵活性和可持续性。由于供需突然变化,我们见证了石油的负价格并经历了全球供应链系统困境。同样,疫情的传播也影响了人们的工作方式、改变了人们的网络消费行为。2020年2-4月,视频会议、流媒体和在线游戏使用增加,全球流量激增40%以上。这都加剧了人们对数字基础设施能力和应变能力的担忧。不断增长的人口、新技术等使得数字基础设施投资的增长不足以满足未来需求。因此,对新兴市场而言,数字基础设施投资的需求持续上升。虽然已有各种金融活动来弥补差距,但投资在供给和需求方面都面临挑战。对这些项目的独立评估低估了潜在协同作用。项目可行性主要取决于需求和市场成熟度。由于低收入水平和对数字服务的需求不足,这些数字基础设施项目在建立可行商业案例、维持运营盈利能力方面面临挑战。这种不平衡在新兴市场表现更明显。缩小数字鸿沟对于新兴国家经济增长和提高社会福祉意义重大。在这方面,本文提出在“一带一路”范围内的基础设施项目侧重于在大多数新兴国家建设物流和能源基础设施,为数字基础设施建设提供了宝贵机会,可通过项目内协同来弥补数字基础设施投资缺口。一带一路数字基础设施主要有两部分,互联基础设施(即光纤电缆)是数字化的基础,主要成本与土建工程有关,在其他类型的基础设施项目(如铁路和公路)建设过程中,沿途部署互联设施更具可行性。此外,数字枢纽将在“一带一路”项目范围内与互联设施相结合,为投资者提供广泛利益,并为该地区提供服务。在研究方法方面,本文采用了归纳推理法。研究了“一带一路”项目及支持互联设施建设的条件,并提供了用例佐证。同时,本文还讨论了数字化和新技术对“一带一路”基础设施项目的影响及其增值潜力。本文还提出“数字枢纽”理念,服务于“一带一路”基础设施项目和当地市场。研究还确定了"数字枢纽"在缩小区域数字鸿沟方面的好处。在出现意外和紧急情况时,它可以保障传统电信设施的可靠性和复原力。此外,本文还运用SWOT分析评估了以建立和持有“数字枢纽”能力为基础的资本投资,而非基于外部资源租用能力的投资。此外,除了技术和商业视角,本文还定义了使能者维度以支持项目的执行、改善与外部方协作,支持“数字枢纽”区域的社会福祉和商业生态系统。本文提出了“数字枢纽”成功实施和运营策略方案,本文特别关注在构思、施工和运营期间的利益相关者。此外,本文提出“数字枢纽”未来研究方向,为

The recent pandemic has showed its impact at every aspects of life. This unexpected situation questioned the flexibility and sustainability of industries and sectors. Due to sudden change at supply and demand, we witnessed negative price at future oil contracts and experienced difficulties at global supply chain system. In a similar way, pandemic also affected the way of working and changed internet consumptions behaviors. Between February and April 2020, global internet traffic surged more than 40%, due to increased usage of video conferences, streaming and online gaming. Continuation of those trends and increasing usage of new technologies fuel the concerns about the capacity and resilience of global digital infrastructure. Those concerns became even more valid, considering that digital infrastructure investment is not growing fast enough to meet the forecasted needs, based on growing population, usage trends and new technologies. As a result, digital infrastructure investment needs continue to rise, especially for emerging markets.Although there have been activities, which are supported by various types of financiers, to close this gap, investments in this area faces challenges both on supply and demand side. The evaluations of those projects are reviewed as a standard investment case for a standalone project and underestimates potential synergies with other projects. The feasibility of project mainly relies on demand and market maturity. Those digital infrastructure projects face challenges to build a feasible business case and maintain profitability during operation, due to low-income level and lack of demand for digital services. This unbalanced situation is observed clearer at emerging markets. Closing digital divide has a significant importance for emerging countries to help them to support the economic growth and improve social welfare. At that point, we believe that infrastructure projects in the scope of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) emerge as a chance to close the investment gap for digital infrastructure by revealing intra project synergies. Although there is not a distinguished classification, BRI mainly focuses on to build logistics and energy infrastructures at most of the emerging countries.Digital infrastructure has mainly two components. Connectivity infrastructure (i.e. fiber cable) is considered as fundamental of digitalization. The major cost item of deploying connectivity infrastructure is related with associated civil works, deploying connectivity infrastructure in an integrated way along the route during the construction of other type of infrastructure projects (e.g. building railways and roads) can be commercially more feasible. Additionally, a datacenter, which will be built in the scope of BRI infrastructure projects in an integrated way with a connectivity infrastructure creates a full-fledged digital entity, that can provide wide range of benefits to investors and serve to its region as a Digital Hub.As research methodology, an inductive reasoning approach is applied. In the scope of study, BRI projects, their specifications and conditions to support the deployment of connectivity infrastructure is investigated. Various use cases are provided to support the rationality. In the meantime, impact of digitalization and new technologies to BRI infrastructure projects and their potential to generate additional value are also discussed. In the scope of outcomes, “Digital Hub” concept is developed in a way to serve both to BRI’s infrastructure projects and to local market.The research also identifies the potential benefits of “Digital Hub” to close the digital divide at its region and serve as a digital entity, which can support the reliability and resilience of traditional telecommunication infrastructures, in case of unexpected and emergency situations. An additional SWOT analysis is also conducted to assess the commercial rationality in terms of building and holding “Digital Hub” capabilities as CAPEX based investment, instead of renting capacity from external resources as OPEX based investment.Additionally, apart from the technical and commercial perspectives of “Digital Hub”, enabler dimensions are defined to support the execution of program, improve the collaboration with external parties and develop an ecosystem to contribute social welfare & business ecosystem at the “Digital Hub” region. With the insights and comprehensive research conducted to cover all dimensions of “Digital Hub”, a detailed guideline is proposed as a solution towards to successful execution and operation of “Digital Hub” entity. In the scope of this solution framework, special focus on stakeholder structure at the idea phase, during construction and during operation is provided. Furthermore, some early thoughts regarding future of “Digital Hub” are also provided, to encourage further research opportunities.This research contributed a new approach to develop digital infrastructures in connection with the future Belt and Road Initiative projects. It is believed that this new model will serve to close the investment gap for digital infrastructure development, especially for emerging countries. Additionally, it is also believed that in the long term, a network of “Digital Hubs” has potential to become a major technology platform and a central hub for digital business ecosystem.