近年来，环境问题越来越受到关注，尤其是正在处于新冠疫情肆虐的时期。为了中华民族的永续和构建人类命运共同体的伟大畅想，我国宣布了雄心勃勃的“30· 60 双碳”目标。为了配合伟大目标的实现，处于能源链核心位置的电力系统需要实现清洁能源替代高碳化石能源，加快发展清洁能源。未来电力系统的电源结构中，水电将处于主导地位，新能源次之。在这样的结构下，处于主导地位的水电和新能源如何协调运行需要提前做好理论研究。本文的主要工作就是研究计及光伏不确定性的水光互补系统多时间尺度优化运行，主要关键技术如下：（1）一种基于改进马尔科夫链的光伏出力模拟方法。针对水光互补系统多时间尺度运行需要大量光伏出力数据的要求，同时为了避免使用实际光伏出力数据引入其他外部因素干扰仿真和分析结果。提出了采用改进改进马尔科夫链的光伏出力模拟方法，既继承了马尔科夫链模型的优点，同时又针对光伏出力特有的季节特性和日特性进行了保留。（2）考虑电源灵活性的多能系统短期优化调度模型。传统的电力系统运行指标，如可靠性、经济性以及安全性，难以衡量水电主导下高比例新能源并网的电力系统的调节能力大小。而这对于电网的安全运行是必须的。所以灵活性评价在分析电力系统运行时，越来越被关注。本文在构建多能系统短期优化调度模型时，考虑了电源的灵活性。同时，采用鲁棒优化来处理光伏出力的不确定性。（3）水光互补中长期运行策略。一般情况下，水电在中长时间尺度的运行，其优化目标是最大化发电量。但是，将水电长期运行优化的结果，一般是水量，作为短期运行的边界条件时，往往导致短期运行水量紧缺或者过剩。为此，提出长短期协调的方法，以解决水电长期优化调度中，很少考虑短期运行的问题。综上所述，通过三部分关键技术研究，本文基本构建出了水光互补系统协调运行的框架，解决了水光互补系统多时间尺度优化调度的问题。
In recent years, environmental issues have attracted more attention, especially in aperiod of COVID-19. China announced ’30?60’ decarbonization goal for the survival ofthe Chinese nation and building a community of a shared future for mankind. To achievethe great goal, the power systems at the core of the energy chain should replace high-carbon fossil energy resource by clean energy and accelerate the development of cleanenergy. In the future power structure, hydropower will be in a dominant position, followedby new energy. In the circumstances, how to coordinate hydropower and new energyoperation should to be researched in advance. The multi time scale operation strategy ofhydro-photovoltaic hybrid power system considering the photovoltaic uncertainty is themain work of this paper. the main key technologies are as follows:(1) A photovoltaic power simulation method based on an improved Markov chain. Itsatisfys the needs of large amount of photovoltaic power data for the operation of hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power system and also avoid the external disturbance by using actualphotovoltaic power data. A photovoltaic power simulation method is proposed based onan improved Markov chain. It not only retains the advantages of the Markov chain model,but also improves the model accuracy to take the seasonal and daily characteristics ofphotovoltaic power into consideration.(2) A short-term optimal dispatching model for hydro-photovoltaic hybrid powersystem considering the evaluation of power flexibility. Traditional power system oper-ation indexes, such as power system reliability, economy of power system and powersystem security, are difficult to measure the adjusting ability of power system in whichhydropower is playing a leading role and large scale new energy is interconnected intothe power system. the evaluation of power flexibility gets more attention when analyzingpower system operation. In this paper, a short-term optimal model for hydro-photovoltaichybrid power system is builded. It takes the evaluation of power flexibility into consid-eration. Meanwhile, photovoltaic uncertainty is dealt with scenario method.(3) The long-term operation strategy. The optimization goal for operation of hy-dropower in the long-term scale is usually to maximize power generation. However, itleads water shortage or surplus in short-term operation when the result of the optimal op-eration of hydropower in long time term，generally the water amount, is the boundaryconditions of short-term operation. Therefore, a method incorporating short and long termoperation is proposed to consider short term operation in long time scale.In conclusuion, a framework of operation for hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power sys-tem is presented by three parts of key technologies. It solves the problem of optimizingscheduling on multi-time scale of hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power system.
