定制公交是在出行需求日趋复杂,出行信息化特征愈发明显的环境下,诞生的一种新型的公交服务模式。通过一站直达的方式接送乘客,大大提高了效率和舒适性,能够吸引一部分小汽车客流,从而降低路网的拥堵。本文搭建了包含普通公交、定制公交和小汽车三种出行模式的数学模型,探讨了拥堵路网中的定制公交设计问题。本文通过调研,明确了通勤乘客在选择出行模式时关注的主要因素,并且利用描述喜好数据,拟合了离散选择模型,预测乘客的出行模式选择行为。调研结果显示,在同等条件下,小汽车用户有较高的概率选择定制公交,而普通公交乘客对定制公交存在天然抗性。本文以BPR函数作为道路阻抗函数对交通拥挤效应进行建模,同时将乘客选择行为的影响考虑进来,分别探讨了在需求均匀分布和向心分布情况下,最优的定制公交设计方案。数值试验结果表明,引入定制公交之后,高峰期的平均车速有了明显提升;相比普通公交的乘客,定制公交乘客的旅行时间可以节约20%以上;定制公交在起点和终点接送乘客所行驶的路程占比约为三分之一,在道路极端拥堵条件下反而会导致定制公交效率降低;对定制公交进行补贴,可以明显提高定制公交的吸引力,降低路网拥堵程度,进而降低系统总成本;定制公交在在向心需求条件下运营成本非常高昂。本文围绕拥堵路网中包含定制公交的公交系统设计问题进行研究,从理论层面分析了定制公交的设计问题,对于定制公交的运营和公共政策的制定具有一定的参考意义。
Travel demand is becoming more and more complex and information technology is reforming the transportation system. Dedicated bus is a new type of public transport service born in this environment. By picking up passengers at predetermined time and places, running directly to their destinations and dropping them, dedicated bus can provide more efficient and comfortable service, which will attract some car users, thereby reducing the congestion of the road network.This paper builds a mathematical model including ordinary bus, dedicated bus and car, discusses the problem of dedicated bus design. This paper firstly examines the main factors that commuter passengers pay attention to when choosing a travel mode through field study, and fits a discrete choice model using the stated preference data to predict the passenger's travel mode selection behavior. Results show that car users are more likely to use dedicated bus under same conditions, while traditional bus passengers are difficult to switch their choice to dedicated bus.The BPR function was used as a volume delay function to model the traffic congestion effect caused by cars, combining the effect of passenger's travel mode choice, analyses the design of dedicated bus in the case of uniform demand and centripetal demand.Through numerical experiments show that the average speed of the system increases significantly after the introduction of dedicated bus; compared to traditional bus passengers, dedicated bus passengers can save more than 20% travel time; under extremely congested conditions, dedicated bus may have poor performance due to pickup and delivery distance; travel allowance has good effect on the system level; dedicated bus costs more when the demand is centripetal.This paper focuses on the design of public transportation system including dedicated bus in congested road networks and analyzes the problem from the theoretical level. It has reference value for the operation of dedicated bus and the formulation of public policies.