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人类用水时空特性与演化机理研究

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Evolutionary Mechanisms of Human Water Use

作者:雷霄雯
  • 学号
    2015******
  • 学位
    博士
  • 电子邮箱
    407******com
  • 答辩日期
    2020.05.24
  • 导师
    赵建世
  • 学科名
    水利工程
  • 页码
    124
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    004 水利系
  • 中文关键词
    人类用水,人-水耦合系统,水资源管理制度,水热平衡,最优化
  • 英文关键词
    human water use,human-water coupled system,water resources management schemes,heat and water balance,optimization

摘要

人口增长和气候变化加剧了人类用水与生态用水之间以及不同用水部门间的竞争。人类、水循环和生态环境共同组成了流域人-水耦合系统,其中人类活动扮演着越来越重要的角色,应被视为耦合系统的内部变量进行考虑。这需要一个概念性框架将已有零散的人-水耦合定量关系研究综合到一起,来理解不同尺度和不同区域的特性。在此背景下,本研究聚焦于人类用水问题。首先在供给和需求的双约束条件下探寻用水的空间分布特性,推导并验证了人类消耗性用水(简称耗水)的双约束模型;基于该模型推导了人类耗水弹性系数的解析公式,分析了耗水的全球空间分布特性及适应性变化;然后以16个国家60年来的用水和经济数据为基础,总结了经济驱动下的用水时间演化特性;最后从水资源管理制度的角度分析用水的时空响应及经济和生态效应。主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)基于人类和植被耗水行为相似性提出人类耗水双约束模型框架,以我国流域气象水文和用水数据为输入,发现一种与Budyko水热平衡方程类似的关系,其物理内涵可以解释为人类耗水受到供给和需求的双重约束。基于经济和生态用水效益最大化原则,推导了模型的数学形式。提出人类耗水弹性的概念,并依据人类耗水双约束模型的数学表达式将其分解为两部分,从机理上描述了资源禀赋和经济社会需求对人类耗水的影响。 (2)收集整理了全球16个国家的长时间用水和经济数据序列,利用发达国家用水数据证实了用水峰值现象,结合经济数据提炼了用水下降的条件,包括完成工业化、第三产业占据主导地位且经济平稳发展。根据产业用水特性,采用两个S型曲线方程相减的形式构建了人类用水-人均GDP的双相曲线方程,刻画了用水增长和下降的阶段特性,将16个国家分为两类,并基于人均水资源量、耕地面积比和产业结构进一步构建了综合用水指标,辨识不同国家的用水演化特征。(3)利用上述用水理论对黑河中游的用水行为和演化特征进行了分析,结果表明耗水主要受到水资源可利用量的约束,高农业占比导致用水下降的空间很小,但通过紧抓增收与节水两方面,用水效率和产出得以提高。进一步构建了用水户-水文耦合模型,推导了不同水资源管理制度下用水行为与水价和用水成本的关系,从个体层面分析了制度对人类用水行为的影响,结果表明不同制度对流域用水空间分布和经济效益影响较大,但对经济和生态用水之间的总体平衡关系影响不大。

Due to population growth and climate change, the game between human and environment for water has been extremely escalated, when the same is true for various water use sectors. Human together with hydrological cycle and ecological environment form a human-water coupled system in which human activities play an increasingly important role and should be considered as the internal variables. Thus, a conceptual framework should be introduced to integrate the existing fragmented quantitative studies on the coupled system to generate a new understanding from different scales and regions. In such context, this study focused on human water use. Firstly, the spatial patterns of water consumption were explored under the constraints of supply and demand, and a dual constraint model for human water consumption was established and verified. Based on the model, the analytical formula of human water consumption elasticity coefficient was deduced to analyze the global spatial patterns and adaptive change of water consumption. Furthermore, the evolutionary mechanisms of human water use were summarized by using the water use and economic data of 16 countries in the past 60 years. Last but not least, the spatiotemporal response of water use and its ecological and environmental effects were analyzed from the perspective of water resources management schemes. The results mainly include:(1) Based on the similarities between human and vegetation water consumption, the framework of dual constraints model for human water consumption was proposed. With the input of meteorological and hydrological data of the river basins in China, a similar form of the Budyko curve was discovered, the underlying physical meaning of which can be explained as the dual constraints of demand and supply on human water consumption. Based on the maximization principle of economic and environmental water use benefits, the mathematical form of the model was derived. Moreover, the concept of the elasticity of human water consumption was introduced to describe the impacts of water resources conditions and socio-economic demand on human water consumption.(2) Long-term series of water use and economic data from 16 countries were collected and analyzed. Based on the water use data of developed countries, the phenomenon of peak water use was verified. Simultaneously, the premises of water use decline, including the completion of industrialization, the domination of tertiary industry and stable economic development, were also summarized with the help of economic data. Following the patterns of industrial water use, the biphasic curve of water use and GDP per capita was developed by subtracting two S-curve formulas to describe the characteristics of both water use growth and decline. Besides, 16 countries were classified into two types and a comprehensive index was proposed based on renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of arable area and economic structure to identify and analyze the evolutionary mechanisms of different countries.(3) Based on the above water use theories, the water use behaviors and evolutionary patterns of the middle stream of Heihe River were analyzed. The results revealed that water consumption was mainly restricted by water availability and little room was shown for water use decline due to the high proportion of agricultural industry. However, with the help of enhancing income and saving water, the water use efficiency and output can be promoted as well. Furthermore, the agent-hydrological coupled model was further established to explore the relationship between water use behavior and water cost under different water management regulations from the perspective of individuals. The results revealed the significant influence of water management scheme over both spatial distribution of water use and economic benefits. Nevertheless, its impacts on the overall balance between economic and environmental water use were proved to be little.