近几十年的经济社会转型使中国面临日益复杂的社会矛盾和社会稳定风险。现实中，在“一票否决”的刚性维稳压力下，对于高概率且影响巨大的“灰犀牛”式社会稳定风险，一些基层干部仍会采取视而不见或见而不为的消极应对策略，造成了不良社会影响。已有研究对此类消极风险应对行为缺乏合理的解释，且多将政府预设为理性的整体，忽略了基层干部个体风险感知对行为的影响。据此本文提出核心研究问题：风险感知与制度压力是否以及如何影响基层干部应对社会稳定风险的行为策略？具体包括：（1）个体对风险的感知因素如何影响基层干部的社会稳定风险应对行为？（2）制度因素对基层干部社会稳定风险应对行为的影响机制是怎样的？（3）感知因素与制度因素如何相互作用对基层干部的社会稳定风险应对行为产生影响？本文采用混合式研究策略，首先，基于已有研究初步构建了基层干部社会稳定风险应对行为的认知—制度分析框架；然后，通过探索性的案例研究，对E市“城市疏解治理”专项行动这一高社会稳定风险情境中基层干部的行为进行过程追踪和比较案例研究，修正并完善了分析框架；最后，本文基于心理测量与被试内设计的思想设计了调查问卷，通过对真实基层维稳干部的调查，对理论分析框架进行定量分析验证。本研究发现，基层干部的消极应对行为与风险感知状况和制度压力有关：第一，基层干部的社会稳定风险应对行为是被制度压力所塑造的，维稳时间约束和维稳任务清晰度正向影响基层干部的社会稳定风险应对行为。第二，在社会稳定风险情境下，基层干部的个体感知因素在制度因素的基本框架下对行为产生影响。社会稳定风险感知对于维稳时间约束和社会稳定风险应对行为之间的正向关系起干扰作用；资源属性感知对于维稳时间约束和社会稳定风险应对行为之间的关系起增强作用；效能属性感知对于维稳任务清晰度和社会稳定风险应对行为之间的关系起干扰作用。本文的主要研究贡献在于：（1）针对社会稳定风险这一情境，构建了一个综合性的分析框架，探讨了“灰犀牛”式风险被忽视的根源；（2）进一步细化了制度压力对于基层干部行为的具体影响机制，并拓展了风险感知与应对行为理论模型的研究对象和研究领域。本文可以为完善风险治理体系以及改善干部不作为的现象提供一定的政策启示。

In the past several decades, the economic and social transformation has made China face increasingly complex social conflicts and social stability risks. In reality, some social stability risks are seen as “gray rhino” which are highly-probable and has huge impact. However, under the rigid "one-vote veto" pressure of maintaining social stability, some grass-roots officials still take negative coping strategies to deal with those risks. They either turn a blind eye or fail to perform their duties, which has caused adverse social impact. Existing studies lack a reasonable explanation for these negative behaviors, and often presume that the government is a whole rational actor, neglecting the impact of officials' individual risk perception on their behaviors. To fill the gap, this dissertation focuses on the following core research question: Does and how does risk perception and institutional pressure influence the behaviors of grass-roots officials in their reactions to social stability risk? The core question can be broken down into three concrete questions. (1) How does an individual's risk perception affect the social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials? (2) What is the impact mechanism of institutional factors on the social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials? (3) How does the interaction between perception and institutional factors affect the social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials?This dissertation adopts a mixed research strategy. First, based on existing studies, this dissertation establishes a cognitive-institutional analysis framework for social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials. Second, through exploratory case studies, process tracing and comparative case study methods were conducted to study the behaviors of grass-roots officials in the Special Action of "Urban Function Ease and Renovation" in city E. This Special Action has high social stability risk. With these case studies, the analysis framework is revised and improved. Finally, this dissertation designs a questionnaire based on the ideas of psychological measurement and within-subjects design. Through implementing a survey of active grass-roots officials, the theoretical analysis framework is verified quantitatively.This dissertation finds that the negative coping behaviors of grass-roots officials are correlated to risk perception and institutional pressure. First, the social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials are shaped by institutional pressure. The stability maintenance time constraint and the clarity of the stability maintenance task positively affect the social stability risk coping behaviors of grass-roots officials. Second, in the context of social stability risk and within the basic framework of institutional factors, the individual cognitive factors of grass-roots officials have an impact on their behaviors. Social stability risk perception interferes with the positive relationship between stability maintenance time constraint and social stability risk coping behaviors; the resource-related perception enhances the positive relationship between stability maintenance time constraint and social stability risk coping behaviors; the efficacy-related perception interferes with the positive relationship between the clarity of the stability maintenance task and social stability risk coping behaviors. The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows: (1) this dissertation establishes a comprehensive analysis framework in the context of social stability risk, which explains the phenomenon of “gray rhino” risks being neglected; (2) the influencing mechanism of the institutional pressure on the behaviors of grass-roots officials is further clarified and detailed, and the research objects and research fields of the risk perception and coping behaviors theoretical model are expanded. This dissertation has positive policy implications on improving the risk governance system and solving the problem of officials being dereliction of duty.