中产阶级是推动政治转型的变革力量，还是支持和拱卫政权的“稳定器”，一直以来存在争议。支持前者的理由是，中产阶级在获得财富和经济自由后必然要求政治权利，现有体制无法满足时，中产将汇入“掘墓人”大军，充当政治变革的助推力量。支持后者的理由是，中产阶级作为既得利益者，力求在现有条件下实现利益再生产，无论政权是何种属性，中产求稳而不求变，是政权的压舱石。俄罗斯中产阶级/阶层具有两面性：一方面，其利益和晋升空间靠现有体制去满足，与当权者存在依赖—庇护关系；另一方面，长期处在威权体制下，如果中产阶级/阶层原本有限的生存空间不断受挤压，那么其推动体制变革的诉求也会愈发强烈。本文的核心问题是，什么情形下会发生俄罗斯中产阶级/阶层从“稳定器”到“掘墓人”的转变，或者从变革力量到稳定力量的转变。以往的研究大多集中在俄罗斯中产阶级/阶层规模和特点的描述上，鲜有对其政治态度和政治立场的深入讨论。本文认为，导致俄罗斯中产阶级/阶层政治立场转变的原因有二：一是中产阶级/阶层的政治参与度，二是现有体制的政治吸纳度。政治参与度越高，越不利于社会稳定，若此时当权者扩大政治吸纳，那么可以提升政治认受性，中产阶级/阶层将成为“稳定器”性质的重要力量。考虑到俄罗斯专制和威权成分更多，政治吸纳不足，使得中产阶级/阶层的制度外（抗议性）参与多过制度内参与，其频繁的制度外参与必将会同其他政治力量，推动政治变革的发生。本文从历时性研究的角度，以沙俄末期（1905-1917）、苏联晚期（1986-1991）和当代俄罗斯（1991-今）为讨论时空，比较历史节点下中产阶级/阶层的站位变化。沙俄末期出现了商品经济和工业化大生产，等级向阶级转化，中产阶层向中产阶级转化。在高政治参与度和低政治吸纳度之下，中产阶级/阶层由“稳定器”发展成变革者。在苏联末期，戈尔巴乔夫改革催生了市场成分，中产阶层向中产阶级转化。但改革并未促成有效的政治吸纳，中产阶级/阶层终究汇入苏共政权“掘墓人”的力量之中。苏联解体之后，中产阶级在两个政治立场间转换：2003年之前，呈现的是高参与度和高吸纳度，中产阶级是“稳定器”的角色，2003年之后，政治吸纳的范围越收越窄，力度越来越小，但由于高度的政治管控，中产阶级参与度有所下降，因此呈现的是低参与度和低吸纳度，中产阶级变得冷漠和疏离，政治立场出现异化。有鉴于此，普京不得不对政纲进行应景式的微调和修正。
Whether the middle class is a force for change in promoting political transition or a "stabilizer" to support and defend the regime has always been a subject of controversy. The reason for supporting the former is that the middle class only in the democratic system can personal property be safeguarded, oppose upper-level autocracy and lower-level riots. Therefore, it is a key force for political transition. The reason for supporting the latter is that the middle class, as a vested interest, strives to achieve the reproduction of interests under the existing conditions, seeking stability without change, and thus has become a ballast stone for the regime. There are two sides to the Russian middle class: on the one hand, their sources of interests and promotion space are satisfied by the existing political system, which lead to depend on the authorities; on the other hand, under the state monopoly economy and authoritarian system, their living space is limited, and they have demands to promote authoritarian transformation. The central question is under what circumstances will the Russian middle class change from a “stabilizer” to a “gravedigger”, or from a force for transition to a force for stability. There are two reasons for the change in the political position of the middle class. The first is the political participation of the middle class and the second is the political absorption of the existing authority. In the cases selection, the last period of Tsarist Russia (1905-1917), the last period of Soviet Union (1986-1991), and contemporary Russia (1991-Present) are taken as cases. In the late Tsarist Russia, due to high political participation and low political absorption, the middle class shifted from a “stabilizer” to a “gravedigger”; in the late Soviet Union, although the ruler liberalized political absorption, it did not bring positive absorption. The power of the opposition in the system surpassed the ruling party, leading to the occurrence of reverse absorption. Therefore, it showed high political participation and low positive absorption, and the middle class became a gravedigger. In Putin's time, the middle class was between two political positions. Before 2003, it showed high participation and high absorption. After 2003, the scope of political absorption narrowed. Due to the high degree of political control, middle class’s political participation has declined.It shows low participation and low absorption.
