随着我国社会经济的持续稳定发展以及居民人均可支配收入的不断增加，我国玩具市场规模逐步扩大，持续发展能力日趋增强，中国已经成为全球最大的玩具制造国和出口国、全球第二大玩具消费市场，同时也是玩具消费大国中增长最快的国家。在消费升级、新零售的背景之下，以盲盒为代表的潮流玩具已经成为玩具行业的新时尚。近年来，盲盒受到越来越多年轻消费者的热烈追捧，“盲盒”一词常常登上网络热搜榜，成为人们热议的话题。以销售盲盒而著称的品牌泡泡玛特（POPMART）销售业绩连续几年实现爆发式增长，盲盒的二手交易也已成为千万级规模的庞大市场。 所谓盲盒，指的是装在不透明包装盒中各种款式不同的人偶玩具，通常为动漫、影视作品的周边，或设计师自主设计的卡通形象。盲盒一款一盒，独立密封包装，在拆封之前无法知道盒子里面究竟装的是哪一种款式。作为一种创新型的销售策略，盲盒销售具有完全不确定性，在本质上属于概率销售，盲盒实质上属于一种概率产品。概率销售可以使商家扩大销售市场，增加收益，这种新型的商业模式在各行各业都有着广泛的应用可行性。 本文在分析玩具行业市场现状和发展趋势的基础之上，以泡泡玛特公司为研究对象，从目标客户群体和消费者价值等方面进行了消费者分析，从企业定位、关键资源能力、运营模式、销售模式、销售渠道和推广模式等方面对该公司的商业模式进行了全面的分析，并通过SWOT模型对公司的商业模式做出了分析与评价。同时，本文基于概率论和概率销售的理论知识，针对公司现有概率销售模式存在的问题与不足，考虑对现有的单一概率销售模式进行优化，通过建立混合概率销售模式、多层级概率销售模式以及款式数量优化设定等三种方式，进行商业模式的创新和改进，进一步发挥概率销售的积极效应，减小和消除负面效应，达到扩大收益和增加利润的目标。 本文的研究结果可以为泡泡玛特公司以及更多的玩具零售企业提供参考性建议，帮助他们改进现有的商业模式，优化选择销售策略。此外，由于概率销售这种商业模式可推广至其他多种行业，本文的研究结果对于其他商品零售行业企业也有着借鉴意义，能够为企业商业模式创新提供更多新思路和新方向。

With the continuous and stable development of China's social economy and the constant increase of per capita disposable income of residents, the scale of China's toy market has gradually expanded, and its sustainable development capacity has been increasingly strengthened. China has become the world's largest toy manufacturing and exporting country, the world's second largest toy consuming market, and also the fastest growing country among toy consuming countries. In the context of consumption upgrades and new retail, trendy toys represented by blind boxes have become a new fashion in the toy industry. In recent years, blind boxes have been enthusiastically pursued by more and more young consumers. The term "blind box" has often appeared on the online hot search list, becoming a hot topic. POPMART, a brand known for selling blind boxes, has achieved explosive growth in sales revenue for several consecutive years. The second-hand trading of blind boxes has also become a huge market with tens of millions of scales. The so-called blind boxes refer to various doll toys in different styles that are packed in opaque packaging boxes, with the image of animation and film works, or the cartoon image designed by designers. A blind box is a box with independent sealed packaging. It is impossible to know which style is packed in the box before unpacking. As an innovative sales strategy, blind box selling is completely uncertain, and is essentially probabilistic selling. Blind boxes are essentially probabilistic goods. Probabilistic selling can enable sellers to expand the sales market and increase revenue. This new business model has wide application feasibility in various industries. Based on the analysis of the market status and development trends of the toy industry, this thesis takes POPMART as the research object, conducts consumer analysis from the aspects of target customer group and consumer value, makes a comprehensive analysis of the company's business model from the aspects of enterprise positioning, key resource capabilities, operation model, sales model, sales channel and promotion model, and makes an analysis and evaluation of the company's business model through the SWOT model. At the same time, based on the theory of probability and probabilistic selling, this thesis studies the optimization of the existing single probabilistic selling model in view of the problems and deficiencies of the company's existing model. Through the establishment of mixed probabilistic selling model, multi-level probabilistic selling model and the optimization of the number of styles, we can innovate and improve the business model, further exert the positive effects of probabilistic selling, reduce and eliminate negative effects, and achieve the goal of expanding earnings and increasing profits. The research results of this thesis can provide references and suggestions for POPMART and more toy retail companies, help them improve their existing business models, and optimize their choices of sales strategies. In addition, because the business model of probabilistic selling can be extended to many other industries, the research results of this thesis also have reference significance for other commodity retail companies, which can provide more new ideas and new directions for the innovation of enterprise business models.