面对住房市场这样一个高度复杂、空间异质的系统,住房子市场逐渐成为研究住房市场的视角与工具。京津冀区域住房市场结构复杂,住房子市场空间分异明显。本文基于引力模型,利用多源时空数据对京津冀区域进行了住房子市场分区,将京津冀区域住房子市场解构为都市核心区、外围扩展区、市场腹地三个层级,建立了突破行政边界、超越城市尺度的,基于城市群与都市圈视角的区域住房子市场分区体系。在住房子市场分区的基础上,本文以住房可支付性与住房市场稳定性作为住房市场调控政策的主要绩效目标,提出了以住房价格指标为核心的住房子市场评价体系;以市场非均衡理论与竞租理论为基石,利用价格回归模型、供给需求摩擦理论、等响应时间线模型研究了京津冀区域住房子市场住房价格的锚定机制、扰动机制与传导机制。竞租理论演化出的职住矛盾消解迭代模型自下而上对京津冀区域住房子市场分区与价格机制进行了解释与验证。最后在系统动力机制的基础上,重新回顾反思了过去与当前的住房相关政策与规划,提出了响应住房子市场分区研究的住房政策与规划建议。本文通过分区、机制、响应三部分,构建起了特大城市群与都市圈地区住房子市场研究理论框架与技术路径,实证出:1)京津冀核心区域住房市场突破了行政边界,住房子市场是解构和理解住房市场的重要工具;2)住房子市场不同层级有不同的价格机制,区县住房子市场层级跃迁对区县住房价格具有重要影响;3)可支付性、稳定性是住房政策的核心绩效目标,二者需要政策平衡;4)当前住房政策与规划边界约束于行政边界,造成政策规划与市场的空间错位,不利于特大城市群与都市圈住房市场的健康发展,需突破行政边界建立共治共享的圈层式协作机制实现住房供需的空间均衡。主要创新点包括:面向政策边界的住房子市场分区新视角;基于竞租理论职住矛盾消解迭代新模型;住房价格锚定与子市场层级跃迁新机制;系统动力统筹住房政策规划响应新思路。
Faced with such a highly complex and spatially heterogeneous system, the housing submarket has gradually become the perspective and tool to study the housing market. In the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, the structure of the housing market is complicated, and the spatial differentiation of the housing submarkets is obvious. Based on the gravity model, this paper partitions the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region into housing submarkets using multi-source time and space data, and deconstructs the housing submarket into three levels, namely, the urban core area, the peripheral extension area and the market hinterland area. Then, it establishes a regional housing submarkets partition system from the view of city cluster and metropolitan area, which breaks through the administrative boundaries beyond the city scale. After which, a housing submarkets’ evaluation system, taking the housing price index as core, was proposed, in which, housing affordability and housing market stability are regarded as main performance goals of housing market regulation policies. The anchor mechanism, disturbance mechanism and transmission mechanism of the price of the region housing submarkets are studied using price regression model, supply-demand- friction theory and iso-response time line model, based on market disequilibrium theory and race to rent theory. Evolved from the race to rent theory, the iterative model to resolve the conflict between occupation and residence, explains and verifies the region housing submarkets partition and the price mechanism from the bottom up. Finally, taking the systematical motivations into account, housing policies and planning suggestions in response to the housing submarkets partition research are put forward, after reviewing the historical and current housing-related policies and planning.Through the three parts of partition, mechanism, evaluation and response, this paper constructs the theoretical framework and technical path of housing submarkets research in megacity cluster and metropolitan area. It comes to the following conclusions. First, the housing market in the core region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei breaks through the administrative boundaries. It’s an important tool to deconstruct and understand the housing market on the view of housing submarkets. Second, price mechanisms are different on different levels of the housing submarkets, and the level-transition of districts’ housing submarkets impacts the districts’ housing price greatly. Third, affordability and stability are two core performance goals of housing policy, and it’s important to find the balance between them. Four, at present, the boundary of the housing policy and planning is restricted by the administrative boundary, leading to the spatial dislocation between policy and market, which is not conducive to the healthy development of housing market in megacity cluster and metropolitan areas. The main innovations of this paper includes: a new perspective on housing submarkets partition facing policy boundaries; a new iterative model to resolve the conflict between occupation and residence evolved from the race to rent theory; a new housing mechanism anchored on price and a new mechanism of housing submarkets’ level-transition; a new idea of systematical motivations to coordinate housing policy and planning response.