本文的目的主要是通过数据研究、案例分析,了解银行舆情事件对其产生的负面效应,并构建商业银行声誉风险评价模型,对当下我国部分主要商业银行声誉风险管理现状进行评估,对我国银行业监管部门提出有效的政策建议。本文的研究主要分为四个部分。首先,笔者对商业银行声誉风险的成因及影响进行了分析,并对声誉的基础理论进行了回顾和综述,阐明声誉风险管理的概念,介绍我国银行声誉管理发展历史和体系建设,阐述有效管理声誉的必要性及作用。其次,笔者选择和搜集A股上市的31家主要银行的数据,作出假设并建立数据模型,分析了银行负面声誉对其股价的影响。之后本文紧接着根据分析5个不同维度较为典型的银行声誉事件的案例,探讨银行声誉风险的成因和损失,并且根据博弈理论探讨了声誉风险的重要性,证实了商业银行进行声誉管理有助于股东和投资者选择合理的投资行为,不管是声誉累计,还是社会福利都会得到提升,随后选择了四大类银行的相关数据,基于消费者层面、债权人层面、股东层面、员工层面、监管层面、经营者层面等分析并构建了商业银行声誉风险评价模型,对选择的四大类银行进行评价。最后结合银保监会成立后我国商业银行管理声誉风险的现状,提出了改进声誉风险管理的措施,以期有效改进现行银行声誉风险管理的能力,使目前的声誉风险管理的体系能够快速应对舆情,使得声誉风险给银行乃至我国金融业造成的其他风险降到最低。本文主要的方法是量化和实证研究相结合,选取公开市场可获取的最有代表性的并且足够多的31家主要上市银行的数据,定性研究与定量研究相结合,建立我国银行业声誉风险评价的数据模型,综合分析当前监管环境下我国银行声誉风险管理的现状,提出监管层面要制定政策督促银行机构合理构建风险预警指标体系模型、投诉处理沟通机制、监控风险排查机制等政策建议完善我国银行业声誉管理组织体系。以往对于声誉风险的研究主要是定性的分析,而较少对银行业声誉风险进行充分的量化研究以及构建商业银行声誉风险评价模型,这是本文最主要的亮点。
The purpose of this paper is to understand the negative effects of public opinion events on banks through data research and case analysis, and to build a reputation risk evaluation model of commercial banks to evaluate the current situation of reputation risk management of major commercial banks in China, and to put forward effective policy recommendations. This paper is divided into four parts. Firstly, this paper analyzes the causes and effects of reputation risk of banks, reviews and summarizes the basic theories of reputation, clarifies the concept of reputation risk management, introduces the development history and system construction of reputation management of banks in China, and expounds the necessity and role of effective reputation management. Secondly, the author selects and collects the data of 31 major banks listed in A-share market, makes hypothesis and establishes data model, and analyzes the impact of negative reputation of banks on their share price. Then, based on the analysis of five typical cases of bank reputation events in different dimensions, this paper discusses the causes and losses of bank reputation risk and the importance of reputation risk according to the game theory, and proves that reputation management of commercial banks helps shareholders and investors choose reasonable investment behavior, whether it is reputation accumulation or social welfare. Then, the paper selects the relevant data of the four types of banks, constructs the reputation risk evaluation model of commercial banks based on four types of banks. Finally, this paper combined with the current situation of reputation risk management of commercial banks in China after the establishment of CBIRC, this paper puts forward measures to improve reputation risk management, in order to effectively improve the current bank reputation risk management ability, so that the current reputation risk management system can quickly respond to public opinion, and minimize other risks caused by reputation risk to banks. The main method of this paper is to combine quantitative and empirical research, select the most representative and sufficient data of 31 major listed banks available in the open market, combine qualitative research and quantitative research, establish the data model of reputation risk evaluation of China's banking industry, comprehensively analyze the current situation of reputation risk management of China's banks under the current regulatory environment, and propose a reasonable construction. Measures such as risk warning model, complaint handling and communication mechanism, monitoring risk screening mechanism, etc. Which should be taken to improve the reputation management organization system of China's banking industry, as well as practical policy suggestions on public opinion handling of the banking industry. In the past, the research on reputation risk is mainly qualitative analysis, but less quantitative research on reputation risk of banking industry,and giving idea of the construction of reputation risk evaluation model of commercial banks is the main highlight of this paper.