随着我国城镇化的快速发展，生活垃圾产量持续增加，已有填埋场长期超负荷运行，而新建处理设施建设周期较长，处理能力滞后于生活垃圾增长，从而导致我国生活垃圾处理面临严峻的挑战。水泥窑协同处置技术具有减量化效果好、投资成本低、无需重新选址等优势，是缓解城镇生活垃圾处理压力的重要补充途径。然而，由于水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾在我国处于起步探索阶段，对其技术稳定性、环境/能源/经济效益及推广应用潜力的定量化评估不足，难以据此确定该项技术在我国的适用性和政策导向。本研究通过数据包络分析方法（Data Envelopment Analysis，DEA）构建水泥窑协同处置技术效率评价模型，基于企业长时间序列实际运行数据定量化评价技术应用的有效程度及稳定性；采用生命周期评价（Life Cycle Assessment，LCA）、净现值评价等方法，建立技术效益综合评价指标体系及评价方法体系，系统评价水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾在减量化、无害化、资源化和经济性方面效益，并与生活垃圾焚烧、卫生填埋等主流处理技术进行对比分析；最后，结合我国生活垃圾处理设施规划及全国1066家水泥熟料企业产能和空间分布情况，评估水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾的应用潜力，并基于项目净现值的经济评价结果提出促进该项技术推广应用的激励政策建议。研究结果表明：（1）水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾技术的应用水平已经接近了生产前沿面，企业的技术相对成熟，运行工况较为稳定，协同处置生活垃圾对生产系统的影响不显著。（2）相比于卫生填埋、焚烧等主流处理技术，水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾技术具有更好的减量化效果和更低的污染排放：减量率相比于卫生填埋提升了214%，相比于焚烧提升了20.6%-73.0%，总污染排放在温室效应潜势、酸化、光化学效应方面的环境影响潜值相比卫生填埋分别减少了99.7%、77.2%、90.0%，相比焚烧分别减少了99.6%、82.4%、92.4%。（3）全国水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾的理论潜力为4273.7-6890.5万t/年，可以解决2020年58.4%-80.7%的生活垃圾处理设施处理能力缺口。（4）根据水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾项目的净现值分析，建议制定水泥窑协同处置生活垃圾的地方财政补贴政策，建议平均补贴额度为108元/t；若考虑生活垃圾处理企业所得税三免三减半的税收优惠政策，建议补贴额度为97元/t，与其他生活垃圾处理技术的财政补贴水平基本相当。
China is faced with an urgent challenge for municipal solid waste (MSW) management during its rapid urbanization. Some landfills have been operated over their capacities to meet the continuously increasing demand for MSW treatment. The construction of new treatment facilities is usually time-consuming, so the addition of new treatment capacity lags far behind the increasing production of MSW. Cement kilns co-processing of MSW, featuring the advantages of effective waste reduction, low capital costs, and no extra land area required, can provide important MSW treatment capacity as supplement to traditional treatment facilities. However, cement kilns co-processing of MSW is still relatively new technology in China. Quantitative assessments of the reliability, the environmental-energy-economic benefits, and the application potential of this technology are necessary to evaluate its applicability in China and to provide information for relevant decision-making. This study developed a technology efficiency evaluation model for cement kiln co-processing of MSW leveraging data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Empirical time-series operational data of a cement kiln was used to evaluate the treatment performance and stability of the technology, which, together with the results of life-cycle assessment (LCA) and net present value assessment, served to develop a comprehensive technology efficiency indicator system considering multiple aspects, including waste reduction, hazard elimination, resource recovery, and economic sustainability. The assessment results of cement kilns co-processing were compared with existing main-stream solid waste treatment technologies such as incineration and sanitary landfills. Further, this study evaluated the application potential of cement kilns co-processing based on China’s planning of MSW management facilities as well as the production capacity and spatial distribution of 1,066 cement enterprises nation-wide. Finally, this work proposed incentive policies to facilitate the application of this technology according to the result of project net present value assessment.Results of this work lead to the following conclusions: (1) The investigated cement kiln is close to its production frontier for MSW co-processing, with fairly mature technologies and stable operation of the facilily. The co-processing has no obvious influence on the production system. (2) Compared to traditional technologies such as incineration and landfills, cement kiln co-processing of MSW has better performance in terms of waste reduction and pollutant emission. The waste reduction rate of the cement kiln co-processing is 214% higher than that of landfills, and 20.6%-73.0% higher than incineration. The global warming potential, eutrophication potential, and photochemical ozone creation potential of cement kiln co-processing of MSW are lower than those of landfills by 99.7%, 77.2%, and 90.0%, and incineration by 77.2%, 82.4%, and 92.4% respectively. (3) The total theoretical treatment capacity of cement kiln co-processing nation-wide is 4,273.7-6,890.5 t/yr, equivalent to 58.4%-80.7% of the estimated capacity gap in 2020. (4) On average, subsidy of 108 RMB/t MSW is recommended for the economic sustainability of cement kiln co-processing. If the current tax policy regarding MSW treatment facilities also applies to cement kiln co-processing, 97 RMB/t subsidy is recommended, which is comparable to the financial subsidy level for traditional MSW treatment technologies.
