我国空气污染问题严重，体现了经济发展与环境保护的矛盾，研究空气污染的影响有着非常重要的现实意义。党的十九大报告中三次出现“美丽中国”一词，引起了全社会的广泛热议。研究空气污染有助于我们认识到该问题的严重性，才能采取适当的措施降低或消除空气污染的危害。本文使用国内某大型保险公司的保单数据和地级以上城市的空气污染数据，用实证方法研究了空气污染对身体健康和心理健康的影响；空气污染对保险购买决策的影响；空气污染对分析师工作效率、能力的影响。并用实证回归的结果，估计了空气污染导致的超额患病率和超额期望寿命损失，用福利损失估计了相关直接经济损失；还估计空气污染损害认知能力、降低工作效率的经济损失。估算污染问题造成的经济损失，给环境政策的制定提供参考依据。首先，本文用两千多万人的队列研究，探讨了空气污染对人体健康的影响。COX比例风险回归的结果显示，PM2.5污染问题导致人均期望寿命损失了1.6年。PM2.5导致的超额患病的直接经济损失达千亿元，至少占GDP比重的0.3%。PM2.5浓度每变化10 μg/m³，患重疾、恶性肿瘤和肺癌的概率分别增加12%,19%和75%。空气污染问题应当引起有关部门的高度重视，从公共卫生的角度考虑，制定环境政策保证空气质量，保证群众的生命健康。其次，空气污染会导致焦虑、抑郁，甚至增加自杀风险。空气质量指数（AQI）每变化一个标准差，自杀率上升26%，约3.4万人因为空气污染自杀。空气污染对心理的影响，应当得到更多的关注，以积极预防其危害。再次，用COX比例风险回归研究了城市空气污染对保险购买决策的影响，且长期的空气污染会增加保险购买。投保人风险感知水平和城市的空气污染水平，均会影响保险购买决策。最后，我们探究了空气污染对脑力工作者的影响。结果显示，空气污染水平会增加分析师报告错误的可能性，还降低预测准确度。严重的空气污染影响着健康水平，全国大范围的空气污染问题，将通过影响各个经济体的经济活动，从而对宏观的市场产生经济影响。经济发展不应该以环境污染为代价，而要实现绿色发展。解决我国现有的环境问题，进行生态文明建设任重而道远。
Air pollution is a serious problem in China, which reflects the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection. It is of great practical significance to study the impacts of air pollution. The term, "beautiful China", appeared three times in the report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which aroused wide public debates. Studying the hazards of air pollution will help us to realize the seriousness of the problem and take appropriate measures to reduce or eliminate the hazards of air pollution. Using the insurance policy data of a large domestic insurance company and air pollution data of cities above Prefecture level, this paper empirically studies the effects of air pollution on human physical health and mental health, insurance purchase decision-making, and the work efficiency and competencies of analysts, respectively. The results of empirical regression were used to estimate the excess prevalence rate and excess life expectancy loss caused by air pollution. The related direct economic loss was estimated by welfare loss, and the economic loss of air pollution impairing cognitive ability and reducing work efficiency was also estimated. Estimating the economic losses caused by pollution problems can provide references for the formulation of environmental policy.Firstly, this paper uses a cohort study of more than 20 million people to explore the impacts of air pollution on human health. The results of COX proportional hazard regression showed that PM2.5 pollution resulted in 1.6 years of life expectancy loss per capita. The direct economic loss of PM 2.5 caused by excessive illness amounted to 100 billion yuan, accounting for at least 0.3% of GDP. The probability of serious diseases, malignant tumors and lung cancer increased by 12%, 19% and 75% respectively with the change of PM2.5 concentration of 10 μg/m³. The problem of air pollution should be paid great attention by relevant departments. From the perspective of public health, environmental policies should be formulated to ensure air quality and people’s life and health. Secondly, air pollution can lead to anxiety, depression and even increase the risk of suicide. For change in every standard deviation of the air quality index (AQI), the suicide rate increased by 26%, and about 34,000 people committed suicide because of air pollution. More attention should be paid to the psychological impacts of air pollution and its harm should be actively prevented. Thirdly, using COX proportional risk regression and likelihood unrelated regression, this paper studies the influencial factors of insurance purchase decisions, the insured’s risk level and the city’s air pollution level, which both affect the insurance purchase decisions. Empirical results show that long-term air pollution will increase insurance purchases. Finally, the impacts of our air pollution on brain-workers. The results show that the air pollution level increases the possibility of errors in analysts’ reports and decreases the accuracy of forecasts.Serious air pollution affects human health level. A wide range of air pollution problems throughout the country will have an economic impact on the macro market through the economic activities of various economies. Economic development should not be at the expense of environmental pollution, but realizing green development. There is a long way to go to solve the existing environmental problems and build ecological civilization in China.
