防患于未然，安全大于天。当前我国电气火灾事故呈逐年增长趋势，电气火灾风险评估十分必要。然而，实际中对特定场所火灾风险评估方法存在主观性强的缺陷。因此，能够立足于社会经济及火灾事故的统计资料，综合运用电气火灾理论及统计分析技术，建立量化的电气火灾风险评估模型就显得尤为重要。 本文首先通过系统查询、问卷调查等方式获取样本数据，运用因子分析法，得出了电气火灾的7个影响因子。在此基础上，利用Logistic回归、t检验及方差分析等方法，计算得出了影响因子的作用系数及电气火灾风险计算公式。然后，运用回归分析法、聚类分析法，分析了电气火灾数量与社会经济因素的相关关系，得出了电气火灾数量的预测计算公式。利用上述所得结论，可对具体场所的电气火灾风险进行评估。 本文的主要创新是以大量的数据为研究基础，对电气火灾影响因素进行分析，得到了结构化、可查询的电气火灾影响因子，并通过综合运用各种统计方法，得出了简单方便、易于操作、客观科学的电气火灾风险评估方法。 电气火灾的风险评估是一个庞大的系统工程，本课题的研究可以为消防安全管理以及火灾保险费率的厘定等提供参考，具有一定的实际应用价值。
Safety is greater than heaven. At present, the electrical fire accidents in China are increasing year by year. However, in practice, the method of fire risk assessment in specific places has the defects of strong subjectivity. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish a quantitative electrical fire risk assessment model based on the statistical data of social economy and fire accidents, and the comprehensive application of electrical fire theory and statistical analysis technology. Firstly, this paper obtain sample data through systematic inquiry, questionnaire survey and other methods, and use factor analysis method to obtain 7 influencing factors of electrical fire. Based on this, Logistic regression, t test and variance analysis were used to calculate the effect coefficient of influencing factors and the calculation formula of electrical fire risk.Then, using regression analysis and clustering analysis, the correlation between the number of electrical fires and social and economic factors is analyzed, and the prediction formula of the number of electrical fires is obtained. Finally, the above conclusions can be used to evaluate the electrical fire risk in specific places. The main innovation of this paper is analyzing the electrical fire impact factors based on a large number of data, and obtaining the structured, queryable electrical fire impact factors. Through the comprehensive use of various statistical methods, a simple, convenient, easy to operate, objective and scientific electrical fire risk assessment method is obtained. The risk assessment of electrical fire is a huge system engineering, the research of this topic can provide reference for fire safety management, and the determination of fire insurance rate, etc., which has certain practical application value.
