大气细颗粒物（PM2.5）污染是我国当前主要环境问题之一，对公共健康产生严重威胁。分析中国PM2.5污染及相关公共健康危害的时空变化趋势及其驱动因素，对有效制订控制政策具有重要意义。针对这一问题，本研究设计并建立了一个多模型耦合的分析框架，基于空气质量模型和暴露-响应模型模拟了中国地区PM2.5污染水平及其健康危害的长期变化趋势，在此基础上基于指数分解模型、排放清单模型和空气质量模型分解了PM2.5污染及其健康危害变化的驱动力，并进一步梳理总结我国大气污染控制进程，定量了不同阶段各类污染控制政策的空气质量改善效果和健康效益。本研究首先基于空气质量模型WRF-CMAQ和综合暴露-响应模型IER模拟了中国地区2000-2017年间PM2.5污染及相关过早死亡人数的时空变化情况，并对浓度模拟结果进行全面验证。模拟结果表明，2000-2017年间中国地区的人口加权平均PM2.5浓度和相关过早死亡人数均先升后降，峰值年分别出现在2007和2005年。在此基础上，通过耦合指数分解模型、排放清单模型、空气质量模型和综合暴露-响应模型，建立了定量分析PM2.5污染变化驱动力的模型框架，并基于该框架对中国PM2.5污染及其健康危害变化的驱动力进行了分解。结果表明2002-2012年间，社会经济发展是推动PM2.5浓度及相关过早死亡人数增加的主要驱动力，大气污染控制政策对控制PM2.5浓度上升具有明显成效，而气候能源政策和经济结构调整政策对抑制PM2.5污染和健康危害的潜力有待挖掘。在梳理我国大气污染控制进程的基础上，基于建立的分析框架进一步对各类污染控制政策的效果进行了定量评价，发现在2013年之前电力和工业部门的污染控制政策对改善空气质量最为有效；2013年《大气污染防治行动计划》实施以来，主要减排措施的实施使得2017年全国人口加权平均的PM2.5浓度水平下降了30%，避免了全国20.3万人（95%置信区间：16.6-23.8）过早死亡。敏感性试验结果表明2013-2017年间气象条件年际变化对全国整体PM2.5浓度影响有限，人为减排措施主导了空气质量改善。在《大气污染防治行动计划》各项措施中，重点行业提标改造、燃煤锅炉整治和落后产能淘汰对降低PM2.5污染及其健康危害的贡献最为显著。

China is now confronted with severe ambient fine particle (PM2.5) pollution, which greatly threats public health. To enact pertinence policies to resolve PM2.5 pollution and its adverse health effects, it is necessary to have a comprehensive decadal retrospective of the spatial and temporal variations of China’s PM2.5 pollution and its attributable health impacts, and also, drivers of those variations. To tackle this issue, my dissertation developed a coupled multi-model analysis framework. This study obtained long-term simulation of PM2.5 concentration and its attributable mortality in China by utilizing air quality model and concentration-response functions. Based on the obtained dataset, this study further applied index decomposition model, emission inventory model, and air quality model to decompose drivers of variation in China’s PM2.5 pollution and PM2.5 attributable premature mortality. Based on the retrospective of the evolution of China’s clean air actions, impacts of air pollution control policies on air quality improvements and public health benefits were evaluated with emphasis among all drivers. First, variations of PM2.5 concentration and its attributable mortality over China were simulated by using the WRF-CMAQ model and the Integrated Exposure-Response functions (IER). Accuracy of PM2.5 simulations was evaluated by observations to ensure reliability. Model simulations indicates that PM2.5 levels and PM2.5-attributable mortality during 2000-2017 both increased at first and then decreased. And peak value of PM2.5 concentration and its attributable mortality occurred at 2007 and 2005, respectively. Second, based on the simulated long-term dataset, an analysis framework which integrates index decomposion analysis model, emission inventory model, air quality model, and the IER model were built to decompose drivers of PM2.5 and its attributable mortality. This study finds that air pollution control polices have largely offset the PM2.5 pollution and PM2.5 attributable deaths that would have resulted from increased economic activity over 2002-2012, while climate-energy policies and changes in the country’s economic structure had a comparatively limited effect. Third, based on the retrospective of the evolution of China’s air pollution control policies, impacts of those policies were evaluated by using the developed analysis framework. The analysis shows that, air pollution control related to industry and power sectors contributed to significant benefits on improving air quality and protecting public health before 2013. At last, this study analyzed the benefits of implementing “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” (the “Action Plan”) during 2013-2017. The analysis shows that the implementation of major measures proposed by the “Action Plan” lead to a 30% reduction in PM2.5 concentration in 2017 and avoided 203 thousand attributable mortality (95% confidential interval: 166-238). Sensitivity simulations indicate that inter-annual variations in meteorological conditions had limited impacts on national PM2.5 concentration during 2013-2017. Meanwhile, air pollution control measures were the major factors that led to air quality improvements. Among all measures, reconstruction of emission control measures in key industries, rectification on industrial boilers, and elimination of backward production capacity were the major measures that alleviated PM2.5 pollution and its adverse health impacts during 2013-2017.