汽车产业电动化转型是全球应对能源危机与环境问题的重要举措，制定符合地区特征与用户需求的电动化策略成为政府机构与汽车厂商的重大战略需求。本研究旨在深入解析车辆个体出行特征，评估差异性化的个体出行特征下用户使用电动汽车所能获得的用户效益，识别潜在用户和了解市场潜力，并从生命周期的角度系统评估电动汽车的节能减排效益。研究结果能为科学制定电动化策略、实现电动汽车节能减排效益提供参考。研究利用车载GPS采集北京459辆个人乘用车出行数据，并广泛收集欧美城市车辆出行数据，构建了包含1789辆来自国际主要电动汽车市场个人乘用车的出行数据库。建立基于充电机会的个体“出行链”里程分布概率模型，从统计学上定量解析出偶然出行和规律出行两类出行模式。相比欧美地区，北京的规律出行比例较高（44%）、出行里程较短，出行特征较有利于电动汽车发展。研究建立了基于总体拥有成本（TCO）与出行便利性的用户效益分析模型。2015年北京PHEV20（AER=20 km）与BEV150的TCO与汽油车相当，而PHEV50与BEV300的TCO显著高于汽油车。2030年，由于动力电池成本下降，BEV150在北京的潜在用户比例高达67%，但在美国部分地区仅为14%。BEV300在五个地区均有相当比例的潜在用户（23%-49%）。BEV150潜在用户的年均行驶里程低于1万km，BEV300在1.2~2.4万km之间，BEV450在1.8万km以上。研究拓展并完善了“车辆运行-车用燃料-车用材料”的全生命周期排放方法学。2015年北京轻型车EV可削减34%~69%的VOC、4%~21%的NOX与15%~28%的GHGs排放。GHGs排放主要来自车用燃料周期，而大气污染物排放中车用材料周期的占比则达到了44%~93%（VOC）、40%~46%（NOX）、58%~64%（一次PM2.5）与73%~74%（SO2）。材料周期VOC排放控制重点为车用油液与整车制造行业，NOX、一次PM2.5与SO2排放控制重点则为钢铁、有色金属、电池制造等行业。由于出行特征不同，电动汽车的用户效益与减排效益均存在显著个体差异，并总体呈现协同关系：用户效益排在地区前25%的“优先用户”所能获得的GHGs减排效益是同一地区其他用户的3.9倍（北京）、1.8~2.1倍（美国与德国）。由于个体用户效益与减排效益的偏态分布特征，以往基于“车队平均”的评估方法会导致用户效益低估61%，减排量低估24%。BEV450的成本与环境负荷显著高于BEV300，未来EV发展策略应综合考虑续航里程、成本与环境负荷之间的平衡。
Fleet electrification in the automotive industry is widely seen as an important movement to deal with global energy crisis and environmental problems. Developing electrification strategy that accommodates regional characteristics and individual travel demand has become a major strategic need for both government and automobile manufacturers. This study aims to carefully analyze individual travel characteristics and assess customer benefits and environmental benefits of electric vehicles under heterogeneous driving patterns. The results could help to identify the individuals with most potential for emission reduction, and focus the major processes from a life cycle perspective, thereby contributing to electrification strategy development.Travel profiles from 459 personal passenger vehicles in Beijing, China were collected via GSP data loggers, and vehicle travel profiles from the U.S. and Europe were gathered to establish a global individual travel profile database of 1789 vehicles. A statistical model was developed to characterize individual trip chain distribution and identify habitual and random travel patterns. Beijing has the highest fraction of habitual travel (44%) and relatively short travel distance, presenting advantages for electric vehicle deployment compared with the U.S. and European regions studied in this research. This study quantified customer benefits based on total cost of ownership and travel convenience. In 2015, only PHEV20 (AER = 20 km) and BEV150 in Beijing could achieve comparable TCO with gasoline vehicles. In 2030, due to rapidly decreased battery cost, BEV150 in Beijing could achieve 67% potential adopter percentage, but only 14% in Minneapolis in the U.S. BEV300 has considerable adopter percentage (23%~49%) in five studied regions. The annual mileage is usually less than 10,000 km for BEV150 adopters, 12,000~24,000 km for BEV300 adopters and 18,000 km for BEV450 adopters.The full life cycle emission model is updated and expanded in this study, which accounts for emissions during vehicle operation, fuel cycle and vehicle cycle. In 2015, electric vehicles could reduce VOC, NOX and GHGs emissions by 34%~69%, 4%~21% and 15%~28% respectively. Vehicle operation and fuel cycle were main contributors to GHGs emission, but vehicle material cycle could not be neglected in terms of air pollutants emissions. Vehicle material cycle accounts for 44%~93% of full life cycle VOC emission, 40%~46% of NOX emission, 58%~64% of PM2.5 emission, and 73%~74% of SO2 emission. The control strategy of vehicle material cycle VOC emissions should focus on vehicle fluids (e.g., windshield washer fluid) and vehicle manufacturing (notably the painting process). Control of material cycle NOX, primary PM2.5, SO2, and GHGs should focus on vehicle and battery production.Due to heterogeneous individual driving patterns, customer and climate benefits of electric vehicles varies significantly among individuals and a positive synergy between individual customer benefits and climate benefits of electric vehicles. Priority adopter, whose customer benefits ranks top 25% in the region from adopting electric vehicles, could achieve 3.9 times (Beijing) and 1.9~2.1 times (U.S. and Germany) emission mitigation benefits than other individual users. Because of the skewed distribution of individual customer and climate benefits, evaluations based on fleet average driving profiles could underestimate customer benefits of BEV300 by 61% and climate benefits by 24% on average. BEV450 has significant higher cost and environmental footprint, thus indicating future EV development strategy should comprehensively analyze and balance AER, cost and environment impacts.
