资本市场作为企业主要的外部融资平台，企业融资行为的特征及规律对于促进市场的规范有效发展具有重要意义。其中，市场时机效应是上市公司融资决策行为的主要理论之一，国内外学者对市场时机效应进行了诸多实证检验与理论分析。市场时机理论认为，上市公司根据其股票价格估值水平的时间窗口择时进行融资行为，当其股票被相对高估时，公司管理者倾向于通过股权方式融资；当其股票价格被相对低估时，倾向于使用债务工具融资。已有文献及研究成果中，学者对于市场时机效应在对应资本市场的存在及适用性进行了分析检验，普遍认为上市公司的融资行为存在明显的择时特征。但与此同时，国内的实证模型及研究变量集中于市场时机的间接指标，解释效力有待提升。为此，本文创新性地将股票收益率及市场预测偏差等指标和对应模型应用于国内资本市场，进一步检验国内上市公司的融资行为特征与市场时机效应的适用性。本文以A股市场上市公司作为研究对象，对2012-2016年和2014-2016年的5年和3年时间跨度进行检验。在国外文献实证模型的基础上，本次研究使用企业股权融资当年度业绩快报披露后的股票收益率情况和当年度实际实现每股收益同分析师预测的偏差情况作为市场时机代表变量，分别构建模型检验当期股权融资占比等变量。研究发现，上市公司股权融资当年度业绩快报披露后3日的股票收益率与当期股权融资占比显著负相关；上市公司发生股权融资行为当年度每股收益预测偏差与当期股权融资占比显著负相关。通过实证研究发现，A股上市公司存在根据市场时机进行融资决策并择时进行股权融资的现象，公司管理者在股票价格被相对高估以及业绩情况被外界过于乐观预测的市场时机，倾向于选择股权方式进行融资，且股票价格被高估的程度和市场对于业绩乐观预测的偏离程度越高，上市公司当期股权融资所占比重越大。从而基于上述研究验证了A股资本市场存在较为明显的市场时机效应与择时行为。
As capital markets are the main external financing platform for enterprises, the features and rules of corporate financing behavior are of great significance for promoting the effective development of market regulation. The market timing effect is one of the main theories of financing decision-making behavior of listed companies. Domestic and foreign scholars conducted many empirical tests and theoretical analyzes on market timing effects. According to the theory of market timing, listed companies choose to conduct financing activities based on the time window of the valuation of their stock prices. When the stock is relatively overvalued, managers tend to raise funds through equity. And when the stock price is undervalued, managers tend to use debt instruments to finance.Scholars have analyzed and tested the existence and applicability of the market timing effect at the corresponding capital markets. Generally speaking, the financing behavior of listed companies has obvious timing features. However, at the same time, the domestic empirical models and research variables focus on the indirect indicators of market timing, and the explanatory power needs to be promptly improved. Therefore, this paper creatively applies indicators and verification models such as stock returns and market forecast bias to the domestic capital market to further test the applicability of the financing behavior features and market timing effects of domestic listed companies.This paper used the listed companies in A-share market as the research object, and conducted the 2012-2016 and 2014-2016, five-year and three-year span test. Based on the empirical models in foreign literatures, this study adjusted the actual features of domestic capital market and listed companies, using the stock returns after the preliminary earnings announcement and forecast error of earnings per share as the representative of the market timing variables, and constructed the model to test the proportion of equity financing and other variables.The empirical results show that the 3-day stock return after the preliminary earnings announcement is significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of the equity financing in the current period. Besides, the forecast error of earnings per share is significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of the equity financing in the current period. A-share listed companies make financing decisions according to the timing of the market. Managers tend to choose equity financing when the stock price is overvalued and the performance situation is over-optimistically forecasted by the outside investors. Based on the results of the empirical tests, it is verified that the A-share capital market has obvious market timing effect and timing behaviors.
