近年来高铁网络对中国经济的影响愈来愈大。人们逐渐意识到高铁对促进中国区域一体化和均衡发展的重要作用，研究高铁对区域发展影响已经成为社会各界关注的热点问题。本文尝试从全国区县微观层面分析高铁对中国县域发展影响机制，探讨高铁建设的合理性，分析高铁建设带来的时间效益、集聚效应及扩散效应，定量研究高铁对不同地区、不同行政级别和不同城市群的区县带来影响的差异，为中国高铁的进一步发展提供一定的指导和借鉴作用。本文从直接影响、间接集聚效应影响和间接扩散效应影响三个方面分析高铁对区县经济的影响。首先构建中国县域高铁站分布数据，研究高铁开通对于区域一体化发展的影响，基于综合指数法，分析高铁网络建设对中国各区县高铁可达性的影响，发现东部地区市辖区的平均归一化中心度及可达性最高，西部地区普通县的平均归一化中心度最低，与高铁站分布的规律较为一致。发现地处东部发达地区的长三角、京津冀和珠三角城市群的平均归一化可达性最高，比最为落后的成渝城市群高出300%以上。在测算出可达性的基础上进一步测算高铁对运输发展的直接积极效应，通过生产-成本模型测算给各区县节省的时间成本。基于因子分析法测算经济集聚指标，研究高铁开通带来的集聚效应对县域经济发展差距的影响，发现虽然高铁建设在一定程度上加剧了西部地区的县级市和普通县发展失衡，总体上高铁没有进一步加剧区域发展不平衡，两年截面对比发现第一产业熵和第二产业熵有所下降，区县总体上发展不平衡得到缓解。最后利用倾向匹配-双重差分模型，基于面板数据进行计量分析高铁对县域经济扩散效应影响。然后在分行政类型和分区域两种方法下深入研究交通对不同类型区县的影响效果，并针对我国七大城市群分别进行分析，最终发现高铁建设对区县经济发展贡献率为26%。高铁建设对市辖区经济发展贡献率为27%，高铁建设对县级市经济发展贡献率为22%，高铁建设对普通县经济发展贡献率为20%。高铁建设对西部地区和市辖经济发展影响不够明显，总体而言东部地区、中部地区和西部地区受益程度依次减少。
In recent years, the high-speed rail network has had a greater impact on the Chinese economy. People gradually realize that high-speed rail plays an important role in promoting regional integration and balanced development in China. Studying the impact of high-speed rail on regional development has become a hot issue of concern to all sectors of society. This paper attempts to analyze the impact mechanism of high-speed rail on the development of China's county from the microscopic level of national districts and counties, explore the rationality of high-speed rail construction, analyze the time efficiency, agglomeration effect and diffusion effect brought by high-speed railway construction. Insufficient, quantitative study on the impact of high-speed rail on districts and counties in different regions, different administrative levels, and different urban agglomerations will provide some guidance and reference for the further development of China's high-speed rail.Firstly, this paper constructs a network of high-speed railways in China's counties to study the effect of the opening of high-speed railways on the growth of regional integration. Based on the overall exponent method, this paper analyzes the effect of high-speed rail network construction on the accessibility of high-speed railways in all districts and counties in China. the average normalized centrality and accessibility are highest in the municipal districts of the eastern region, and the average normalized centrality is the lowest in the ordinary counties in the western region, which is in line with the distribution pattern of the high-speed railway stations. The average normalized accessibility of the Yangtze River Delta, Jing jin ji City Group, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations located in the eastern developed regions is highest, which is more than 300% higher than that of the most backward Chengyu City Group. On the basis of research approachability, the plump positive effect of high-speed rail on the growth of transportation is further analyzed, and the time and cost saved by each district/county is calculated through a production-cost model. Based on the factor analysis modus, the economic agglomeration index was calculated to study the effect of the agglomeration effect brought by the opening of the high-speed railway on the economic growth of the county. This paper finds that although the high-speed railway construction intensified the growth imbalance between the prefecture-level cities and the ordinary counties in the western region to a certain extent, the high-speed rail was not further developed. Finally, using the PSM-DID model, based on the panel data, the quantitative analysis of the effect of high-speed rail on county-level economic diffusion effects was performed. Then, the effects of traffic on different types of districts and counties were studied in depth under the administrative and subregional approaches. In addition, this paper studied seven major urban agglomerations in China, and the dedication of high-speed rail construction to the economic growth of the districts and counties was eventually found to be 26%. The dedication rate of high-speed rail construction to the economic growth of the municipal districts is 27%, the dedication rate of high-speed rail construction to county-level cities' economic growth is 22%, and the dedication of high-speed rail construction to ordinary county economic growth is 20%. The effect of high-speed rail construction on the GDP growth in the western regions and municipal districts is still not significant enough.
