难民问题是近年来国际移民研究的热点问题。2015年爆发的欧洲难民危机是近年来最大的人道主义灾难。德国作为此次欧洲难民危机中最典型的难民流入国，其难民政策经历了从犹豫、欢迎到重新收紧的动态变化过程。 在全球化的时代，中国同样面临着应对难民和非法移民的问题。德国难民政策在决策及实施上的经验和教训值得中国关注和借鉴，对德国难民政策进行研究具有现实意义。 本文以德国难民政策为分析对象，以三圈理论为框架，通过文献研究法对德国难民政策的政策内容和演变过程进行分析，对难民政策的政策目标和政策实施效果进行归纳总结，并基于德国联邦移民与难民局的难民抽样调查问卷、相关媒体报道和研究文章，通过调查研究法对德国难民政策进行评估，以此为基础对德国难民政策的目标落差及政策失灵原因进行归纳总结。 本文研究认为，德国难民政策在欧洲难民危机期间发生的动态变化，是政策的价值圈、能力圈和支持圈三圈先后发生变化所导致的结果。能力圈、支持圈同价值圈不再匹配是德国难民政策出现政策失灵的诱因。在法制建设、机构设置、人员配备、信息数据管理、PPP模式、国际合作、政策调整等方面，德国难民政策的得失给我国提供了可借鉴的经验和教训。
The refugee problem is a hot issue in recent years. The outbreak of the European refugee crisis in 2015 was the largest humanitarian catastrophe in these years. Germany is the most typical refugee inflow country of the European refugee crisis, whose refugee policy has experienced a dynamic change from hesitation to welcome and back to re-tightening.In the era of globalization, China is also facing the problem of dealing with refugees and illegal immigrants. The experience and lessons of German refugee policy in decision-making and implementation are worthy of our attention and it is of practical significance to learn from the German refugee policy.Based on the Strategic Triangle von Moore, and by collecting and studying the literature and related reports at home and abroad on the history, present situation and influence of the German refugee policy, this paper attempts to analyze the policy content and changing process, summarize the policy goals and implementation results. Further more, this paper will analyze the reason for the policy failure based on a refugee survey carried out by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees of Germany and related reports and articles. This paper argues that the dynamic change in the German refugee policy during the European refugee crisis is the result of a change in the value circle, capability circle and support circle of the policy. Capability circle and support circle doesn’t match with the value circle any more, which leads to the policy failure. The German refugee policy provides experience and lessons for our country in terms of legal system construction, institution setting, staffing, information data management, PPP mode, international cooperation and policy adjustment.
