我国现阶段大范围空气污染现象频发，大气污染治理及区域环境空气质量改善已成为公众普遍关注的问题。大气污染物总量减排是区域环境空气质量改善的有效途径。钢铁行业是全国及京津冀、长三角区域的重要工业大气污染源，其排放的烟（粉）尘、二氧化硫、氮氧化物等主要大宗污染物总量减排与改善区域环境空气质量密切相关。开展我国钢铁行业主要大气污染物总量减排潜力研究对行业总量控制政策制定和改善区域环境空气质量具有重要意义。本论文应用战略方法、系统方法、情景分析法、工程技术方法等相结合进行我国钢铁行业总量减排潜力研究。基于相关文献和统计数据，论文对基准年（2015年）钢铁行业主要大气污染物吨钢排放强度进行计算分析，计算结果表明我国钢铁行业当前主要大气污染物排放强度偏高，对比国内外相关先进排放指标，钢铁行业总量减排潜力较大。基于未来我国钢铁行业整体清洁生产水平持续提高、主要大气污染物排放强度持续下降的预期，论文采用情景分析法设定基准情景、控制情景、强化情景三种不同减排情景，推荐情景为强化情景；论文建立了钢铁行业总量减排潜力研究方法和相关预测计算模型，计算分析了钢铁行业未来各主要时间节点污染物排放量、减排量、减排比例、工程减排投资需求等指标；采用情景分析法计算分析了节能、削减粗钢产量、提高电炉钢占比、钢材出口管制协同措施的减排潜力。研究结果表明，与基准年排放水平相比，在本论文设定的强化情景条件下全国区域2050年钢铁行业烟（粉）尘排放量降低约99%，二氧化硫排放量降低约89%，氮氧化物排放量降低约63%；2030年行业烟（粉）尘排放量降低约85%；二氧化硫排放量降低约60%，氮氧化物排放量降低约25%；2020年行业烟（粉）尘排放量降低约84%，二氧化硫排放量降低约48%，氮氧化物排放量降低约14%。强化情景2020年、2030年、2050年钢铁行业总体排放水平分别达到国内先进、国内领先水平、国际领先水平，全国及京津冀、长三角区域钢铁行业主要大气污染物排放量均大幅度降低。强化减排情景措施可行、成本可控、减排量最多，最有助于区域环境空气质量改善和行业可持续发展。行业协同措施减排效果也较显著，其中节能措施协同减排量较多、其次为削减粗钢产量和提高电炉钢占比措施，钢材出口管制措施协同减排量相对较小。
At present the large-scale atmospheric pollution in our country occurs frequently, and the air pollution control and the improvement of regional ambient air quality have become a public concern. The total emission reduction of air pollutants is an effective way to improve regional ambient air quality. The iron and steel industry is the important industrial pollution source in China, in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and in the Yangtze River Delta region, the emission of smoke and dust, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, which are closely related to the atmospheric pollutant emissions and improving regional environmental air quality. The study on the total emission reduction potential of major air pollutants in China's iron and steel industry is of great significance to the formulation of the total amount control policy and the improvement of the regional ambient air quality.This thesis study the total emission reduction potential of China's steel industry with strategic methods, systematic methods, scenario analysis methods, engineering technology methods and so on. Based on the relevant literature and statistical data, the main atmospheric pollutants emission intensity of per ton crude steel in the base year (2015), which are calculated and analyzed. The calculation results show that the emission intensity of the main air pollutants are high in China's iron and steel industry. Compared with the relevant advanced emission indicators at home and abroad, the total potential of iron and steel industry emission reduction is larger. Based on the expectation that the overall clean production level of China's iron and steel industry will continue to increase and the emission intensity of major air pollutants will continue to decline in the future, the study uses scenario analysis to set up three scenarios: baseline scenarios, control scenarios, and reinforcement scenarios, and recommends scenarios is reinforcement scenarios. The prediction model and research method of total emission reduction potential of iron and steel industry are established, the indexes of pollutant emission, emission reduction, emission reduction ratio and investment demand of project emission reduction are calculated and analyzed; the scenario analysis method are used to calculate and analyze the emission reduction potentials of energy saving, reducing crude steel production, improving the proportion of EAF steel and controlling the export of steel.The results show that, comparing with the benchmark annual emission level, under the reinforcement scenarios conditions of setting by this study,in 2050, the emission of smoke in the steel industry of the whole country will decrease by 99%, sulfur dioxide emissions will decrease by 89%, and nitrogen oxides emissions will decrease by 63% ; In 2030, the emission of smoke and dust will decrease by 85%, sulfur dioxide emissions will decrease by 60%, and nitrogen oxides emissions will decrease by 25%;In 2020, the emission of smoke and dust will decrease by 84%, sulfur dioxide emissions will decrease by 48%, and nitrogen oxides emissions will decrease by 14%. in 2020, 2030, 2050, the overall level of emissions of steel industry with the reinforcement scenarios will reach the domestic advanced, leading domestic level, the international advanced level, The emissions of major air pollutants in the iron and steel industry in China, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta will be greatly reduced. The measures of strengthen emission reduction scenarios are feasible, cost controllable, and emission reductions the most, which will contribute to the improvement of regional ambient air quality and sustainable development of the industry. The cooperation reduction measures effect are also significant, the energy saving measures emission reduction effect is relatively more，the second and third are reduceing crude steel production and improving the proportion of EAF steel, steel export controlling measures effect is relatively few.
