本文详细估算了北宋从公元980年到公元1125年的财政收入和财政支出，并且构建了北宋财政收入和财政支出的时间序列数据。结合史书记载、已有研究成果、以及我们估算得到的这些数据，本文深入分析和讨论了北宋时期财政收支的演变过程和趋势、结构组成、和平衡状况等财政运行的基本情况。同时，本文将北宋时期的财政收支与GDP、战争以及自然灾害数据结合，运用回归分析对北宋时期的治国理念、财政收支和战争之间存在的关系进行了探讨。从财政收支结构组成及变化趋势来看，财政收入中占比较大的是两税收入和禁榷收入，两税收入占比呈现出下降的趋势，而禁榷收入占比则不断增加。这也充分地说明了北宋时期政府收税能力不断下降，为了弥补下降的税收，政府选择对商品进行垄断，从而增加税收。在财政支出的结构中，以“冗官”和“冗兵”所造成的官员支出和军费支出占比最大，二者总共占到除去皇室支出的总支出的80%至90%。就财政平衡状况而言，在北宋末年基本维持在财政赤字的状态。基于针对北宋时期财政运行情况所进行的基本分析，本文定义财政情况为财政盈余占GDP的比重，通过回归分析探究财政情况与战争之间的关系，研究结果表明，财政盈余占比与发生的战争次数存在显著负相关关系。此外，在进一步分析单兵和马匹支出的实际值时，也印证了北宋末年财政问题和前线战争失败之间存在着一定的相关关系。同时，还研究了北宋政府在面对内部税收下降，外部战争冲击时所采取的应对措施，发现当北宋政权面临正常税收下降，或是受到外部战争冲击的时候，统治者会采取加强官府垄断，增加禁榷收入的方式作为应对和补救措施。进一步对数据进行分析，本文认为北宋政府在战争中屡尝败绩，其主要原因是以财政为核心的国家能力下降所致。赵匡胤陈桥兵变即武将夺权，因此北宋历代皇帝最担心的是对政权的威胁。历代皇帝通过增设机构，使得各个部门和官员之间相互牵制，以达成巩固和加强君主专制中央集权的目的。为了抑制将领在地方集团中的影响力，北宋将领和士兵常年在不同地区之间进行轮换，使得“兵不识将，将不识兵”。而同时，北宋政府面临着严峻的外部环境，常年面临着来自辽、西夏、交趾以及金的威胁，北宋政府只能通过增加军队数量来抵御外敌。然而，在官吏及军费总体支出占据大部分财政支出，并且持续上升的同时，单兵和马匹的支出却在下降，前线将士缺乏激励，最终导致北宋末年屡战屡败，进而导致北宋政权的灭亡。

This dissertation examines the relationship between the fiscal conditions and the external wars of China’s Northern Song Dynasty (980 A.D. to 1125 A.D). We first estimates the fiscal revenues and expenditures of the Northern Song Dynasty. Based on the data, the dissertation analyzes the evolution and structure of the dynasty’s fiscal conditions. Meanwhile, this dissertation employs regression analysis to explore the relationship among fiscal conditions and wars during the Northern Song Dynasty. The data shows that throughout the whole Northern Song Dynasty, the land tax and tax from the monopoly of sales of certain commodities (the monopoly tax) accounted for most of the total fiscal revenue. The land tax decreased while the monopoly tax increased over the years. This suggests that the Northern Song Dynasty chose to increase monopoly on more commodities to mitigate the decreasing tax revenue as its taxing capacity decreased. In terms of fiscal expenditures, those on government officials and the military accounted for 80% to 90% of total expenditure. As for the fiscal balances, the North Song Dynasty maintained huge deficits in the last decades.This dissertation defines the ratio of fiscal balance to GDP as an index of fiscal condition and explores the relationship between the fiscal condition and wars by applying regression analysis. The research suggests that the ratio of fiscal balance to GDP has a significant impact on the frequency of wars. At the same time, this dissertation analyzes the actual average expenditure on troops and horses, with the results supporting the argument that in the last decades of the Northern Song Dynasty its fiscal revenue cannot support the wars it was engaged in and thus was overthrown. In addition, this dissertation also investigates the measures the Northern Song government took to mitigagte the fiscal and war predicaments and finds that when the regular tax declined or in times of external wars, the Northern Song government would make up for the losses by reinforcing monopoly. This dissertation suggests that state capacity, especially the fiscal capacity is the key reason for the regime demise of the Northern Song Dynasty. Because the Northern Song Dynasty was established by the usurping of political power by a former military general, each emperor paid particular attention to the threat of a powerful and well organized military. As a result, extra institutions were established in order to check and balance the military factions among themselves. Also, the court implemented frequent reshuffling of military generals in order to prevent the centralization of power of gnerals. This greatly diminished the army’s combat capacity. To compensate this, under the pressures from home and abroad, the Northern Song government had to expand the size of the military to defend the regime. This caused increases in total expenditures on the military but decreasing expenditure on each soldier. Finally, the fiscal condition could not afford the war any longer and the Northern Song Dynasty was eventually overthrown.