我国夏热冬冷地区经济发达、人口稠密。由于历史和政策原因，该地区冬季室内热环境相对恶劣。一方面，随着当地居民收入水平的不断提高，民众对改善建筑室内环境，尤其是冬季舒适性，有了更高的期待。另一方面，随着《巴黎协定》的正式生效，以及近来我国部分城市环境污染的日益突出，建筑节能减排工作愈发受到重视。如何以尽可能低的能源环境代价提供满足当地民众期待的冬季室内环境成为政府关注、百姓关心的焦点问题，具有重要的学术意义和应用价值。本论文从合理的采暖方式（连续还是间歇），适宜的采暖末端（辐射还是对流），以及采暖能耗和政策三个方面研究了夏热冬冷地区的采暖问题。 采暖方式方面，本研究通过现场测试和网络问卷的方式调研了夏热冬冷地区的冬季采暖情况，了解长江流域室内热环境现状--冬季住宅室内平均温度13.5℃左右，以及当地居民的采暖行为--部分时间部分空间采暖，平均日采暖时间为1.4小时（卧室），1.9小时（客厅）。为了了解影响当地民众采暖行为与需求的因素，我们引入异方差稳定的统计分析方法，解决了异方差存在时，t检验无效的问题。最后，从现状、需求、气候和技术的角度论证了间歇采暖是夏热冬冷地区最合理的采暖方式，既足以满足采暖需求，又能降低采暖能耗。 采暖末端方面，本研究通过准现场实验和计算流体力学模拟比较了辐射末端和对流末端在连续采暖下的舒适性；通过热电类比和传热网络建模比较了辐射末端和对流末端在间歇采暖下的舒适性和能耗。研究发现：连续采暖时，辐射末端和对流末端的热环境总体满意度没有显著性差异。间歇采暖时，对流末端能够快速提升室温，舒适性好；“无效热量”少，采暖能耗低。三种辐射末端中，最适宜间歇采暖的是暖气片，其次是轻薄型地暖，最后是植入型地暖。 采暖能耗与政策方面，本研究提出能耗预测的“应然”概念，建立由下至上的采暖能耗模型，计算出夏热冬冷地区保障合理采暖需求的城镇住宅采暖户均负荷为2231.3 kWh/户，人均负荷为732.2 kWh/人，单位面积负荷为25.6 kWh/m2。基于敏感性分析结果，预测了气候条件、采暖设定温度、采暖触发温度、人口老年化和家庭结构变化对采暖能耗的影响。最后，据此提出兼顾公平与效率的、基于阶梯电价和能源贫困补贴的采暖政策建议。
Chinese Hot Summer – Cold Winter (HSCW) Climate Region covers a huge area with highly dense population and well developed economy. Due to historical and policy reasons, indoor thermal environment quality in HSCW area is relatively poor. With economic development and increasing disposable income, local residents increase their expectation for indoor environment. Meanwhile, with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change coming into effect, and environmental deterioration in Chinese cities, building energy conservation and carbon emission reduction becomes increasingly important. How to improve winter indoor thermal environment in HSCW area with less energy consumption is a hot topic and deserves more research. This research will explore this topic from the perspectives of heat mode (intermittent vs. continuous), heating system (radiant vs. convective), and heating energy consumption. First, through field investigation and online survey, the data of indoor thermal environment has been collected. Heteroskedasticity-robust Ordinary Least Square has been utilized to analyze the heating demand of local residents. It has been proofed from the perspective of current practice, heating demand, weather and technology condition that intermittent heating is capable to meet local residents’ heating demand with less energy consumption. Next, under continuous heating mode, convective and radiant heating systems have been compared through semi-field-semi-chamber experiment and Computational Fluid Dynamic analysis. No significant overall thermal satisfaction difference has been found between different heating terminals. Then, the method of thermal-electricity analogy and heat transfer network has been utilized to simulate the dynamic heat transfer process of intermittent heating and to compare convective and radiant heating systems under intermittent heating mode. It is found that, under intermittent heating, convective heating systems could provide a more comfortable indoor environment with less energy consumption. Since convective heating systems are able to lift indoor environment quickly while reduce “useless heat”. Compared with in-slab floor heating and light-weighted floor heating, radiator is the most suitable heating system for intermittent heating. Last, a bottom-up approach has been adopted to build up a residential heating energy consumption in Chinese HSCW area. It is calculated that to keep adequate warm, residential heating load is 2231.3 kWh per household, or 732.2 kWh per capita, or 25.6 kWh per square meter. Based on sensitivity analysis, it is predicted how the residential heating energy consumption will response to the increasing heating setting temperature, heating triggering temperature, population aging, and the transforming of household structure. Based on these analysis, a policy recommendation for residential heating in HSCW region has been proposed based on multiple policy tools of step tariff, carbon/energy tax and heating subsidize for fuel poverty households.
