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基于层次分析法的中小企业扩张性财务风险研究

Analysis And Prevention Of Expansionary Financial Risk Of Small Or Medium-Sized Enterprises In Analytic Hierarchy Process

作者:李开先
  • 学号
    2015******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 答辩日期
    2017.05.27
  • 导师
    聂庆平
  • 学科名
    高级管理人员工商管理硕士
  • 页码
    46
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    060 金融学院
  • 中文关键词
    中小企业,扩张性财务风险,层次分析法
  • 英文关键词
    Small and medium - sized enterprises,Expansionary financial risk,Analytic hierarchy process

摘要

中小企业作为中国经济的主体力量,依托着改革事业的进一步深入,正有力带动着全国就业和经济社会的发展。据2016年最新统计显示,超过全国企业总数九成的企业为中小企业,其数量已接近5000万户,贡献的GDP占全部企业的六成。同时,中小企业又是极易受到外部经济环境影响的主体,随着外部环境的日新月异,后金融危机时代的来临,我国中小企业在做大做强的过程中面临着巨大的风险和挑战。相比较大型企业,中小企业在成长扩张时显露出其特有的诸多短板,比如粗放式的管理、薄弱的风险防范意识、资金缺乏来源单一、专业人才储备不足等。这些缺点使中小企业更容易遭受到财务上的风险问题,使其在发展的过程中裹足不前。而中小企业在处理财务风险问题时,能够获得的重视程度、专业指导、科学谋划较少,因处理失当而导致破产的可能性较大。从某种意义上说,中小企业对财务风险的防范、分析和掌控能力决定了企业后续发展壮大的成败。那么,本文的研究目的就是为中小企业提供一种更加科学、专业、有效的方法,对其在成长扩张过程中的财务风险进行分析探讨,帮助企业进行风险控制和管理。本文以爱侣健康作为中小企业扩张的典型案例进行分析,对爱侣健康的基本情况、扩张之路及遭遇的风险进行深入分析介绍,并且在使用财务报表分析的基础上引入层次分析法进行定量和定性相结合的分析方式,全方位展示了爱侣健康目前的财务状况。研究发现,爱侣健康扩张手段过于激进,内部管理模式未能及时跟进,市场销售策略产生偏差,使得企业运营成本、各项费用大大增加,导致现金流比率、速动比率指标为代表的短期偿债能力薄弱,盈利能力大幅下降,存在较大的扩张性财务风险。本文的具体研究路径如下:首先,梳理了本文涉及到的基础性概念和理论,阐述了中小型规模企业和扩张性财务风险的基本概念;其次,本文结合实际,对中小企业在扩张时面临的财务风险进行综合归纳,将其产生的原因和特征进行全方位呈现,并且对其进行分析评价;接着,对现有的财务风险刻画衡量方式进行比较,归纳现有方法需要改进之处以及对中小企业的不适用性,针对这些不适用性,本文将介绍层次分析法的原理、步骤,及其在评析中小型规模企业的扩张性财务风险上的优点。最后,本文以爱侣健康作为一个近年来新三板上市的中小企业典型案例进行财务报表分析,并引入层次分析法在评析该企业的扩张性财务风险时的具体步骤,从财务报表及层次分析两方面分析爱侣健康面临的财务状况。

As the main force of China's economy, small and medium enterprises are strong driving the employment and economic and social development which rely on the further deepening of the reform. According to the data statistics of national industrial and commercial registration , more than 99% of registered enterprises are small and medium enterprises which number reaches more than 10.25 million. What's more, small and medium enterprises contribute more than 60% of the country's total output value. Then, the small and medium-sized enterprises are very vulnerable to the external economic environment of the main body. With the ever-changing external environment and the advent of the post-financial crisis era, China's small and medium enterprises in the process of being bigger and stronger will face great risks and challenges.Compared with the large-scale enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises have its unique shortcomings in the expansion of the expansion , such as extensive management, weak risk prevention awareness, lack of funds from a single source of professional talent shortage, etc., which significantly blocked the development of small and medium enterprises . Among them, the expansion of the process of small and medium-sized enterprises are most likely to encounter and more easily overlooked is the financial risk. When faced with financial risk, small and medium enterprises are more likely to be bankruptcy because of the lack of professional guidance, reasonable control and handling misconduct, in all, scientific evaluation and control of the financial risk are important to the success or failure of enterprise development. Then, the purpose of this paper is to provide a more scientific, professional and effective method for small and medium-sized enterprises to analyze and discuss the financial risks in the process of growth and expansion, and help enterprises to carry out risk control and management.Most of the quantitative analysis methods for the listing formula, such as the financial early warning and analysis model of the single variable and the Z-score model, have accumulated a certain amount for the study of financial risk. And these methods are not suited to the evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises’ financial risk because of small size and public information and financial data is not comprehensive, making the quantitative analysis useless. Therefore, this article pioneered the introduction of AHP to the assessment of small and medium-sized enterprises’ financial risk, and achieved remarkable results. This method combines the advantages of quantitative and qualitative analysis methods, and the problems that need to be solved are decomposed into layers. By comparing and calculating the weight of the target variables, the key to the problem is found, thus helping companies make the best decisions.This paper analyzes the significant characteristics of financial risks encountered by small and medium-sized enterprises in the process of expansion with using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The concrete steps are as follows: This paper first combs the concepts and theories involved, and defines the concepts of small and medium-sized enterprises and expansive financial risks. Secondly, this paper combines the actual financial risks of small and medium-sized enterprises. The present situation and characteristics of the existing financial risk are compared, and the existing methods need to be improved and the applicability to the small and medium-sized enterprises, so this article will focus on the method of AHP, which is more suitable for the analysis of the expansive financial risk of small and medium-sized enterprises, and elaborates the concrete steps in the analysis of the financial risks of the small and medium-sized enterprises. Finally, this paper takes Lover Health Co.,Ltd as a typical case of small and medium-sized enterprises listed on the new board in recent years, and uses analytic hierarchy process to analyze the expansion financial risk of the enterprise and test the practical application value of the model.