明确货币供给究竟是内生还是外生，对货币政策的有效性意义重大，关系到货币政策中介指标的选取和政策工具的运用。本文基于货币供给的乘数模型和资金流量模型详细论证中国货币供给的内生性，综合运用后凯恩斯学派适应性内生理论和结构性内生理论研究货币供给的内生机制，结合中国国情分析内生性的根源所在，并提出具体的政策建议。基于基础货币乘数模型进行分析时，分三个层次，即基础货币、货币乘数和货币供给总量，运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等多种计量方法，并结合实际情况充分论证外生性货币供给的前提条件难以成立，即央行对基础货币通过货币乘数的放大作用形成货币供给总量的过程缺乏控制力，指出外生性货币供给理论的缺陷。接着，基于蕴含货币内生思想的资金流量模型，从货币供给流向的角度分析货币供给的内生性。运用协整检验和误差修正模型考察政府的净融资需求变化、非银行私人部门的新增信贷需求，以及外汇储备的变动等多种因素对货币供给内生变动的影响，得出如下结论，外汇占款渠道对货币内生供给的影响在下降，而信贷需求成为货币供给内生增长的主要影响因素。本文结合21世纪以来中国国情具体分析了内生性的根源所在，即中国政府主导的投资驱动的增长模式。本文还运用货币内生理论，并结合金融市场的发展状况分析货币供给的内生机制。央行的适应性货币供给和商业银行体系的主动资产负债管理使其不受准备金数量的约束，能基于公众、企业等经济主体的有效信贷需求发放贷款、派生货币。信贷需求决定货币供给。最后，根据全文的实证研究，提出了具体的政策建议。首先，在内生性货币供给的情况下，价格型货币政策的效果要优于数量型，因此央行应更加重视价格型货币政策，重点关注利率而非货币总量的增长率。此外，价格型货币政策需要配套有效的财政政策等共同作用于信贷需求，以带动经济增长。因此，政府应采取切实有效的措施，鼓励民间投资和公众消费，更好地带动其信贷需求的增长，进而提高其对经济增长的贡献度。

Whether the money supply in China is endogenous or exogenous is of great significance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on multiplier model and flow of funds approach, this paper demonstrates the endogeneity of money supply in China, and also illustrates the mechanism of it applying the Post Keynesian Monetary Theory. After analyzing the source of endogeneity, several specific suggestions are provided.Based on multiplier model, money creation is divided into three levels, namely, base money, money multiplier and total money supply. This paper uses Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to demonstrate the endogeneity of all three levels of money supply in China. Money supply is not an exogenous variable fully controlled by central bank, and therefore it is endogenous in China.Based on flow of funds approach, money supply is mainly determined by public sector net borrowing requirement, new credit demand of non-bank private sector, changes in foreign reserves, etc. This paper further uses cointegration test and error correction model to examine the influences of all these factors in endogenous supply of money. It is concluded that the impact of foreign exchange channel is decreasing, and credit demand becomes the main factor affecting the endogenous growth of money supply in China.It is the government-led investment-driven growth mode in China that makes money supply endogenous at its source. This paper also analyzes the mechanism of endogeneity according to the Post-Keynesian monetary theory. It is adaptive money supply of central bank and active asset-liability management of commercial banks that enable endogenous supply of money to meet effective credit demands.Finally, this paper puts forward several specific policy suggestions based on the empirical study. Interest rate target is better than money target for the implementation of monetary policy under endogenous circumstances. Besides, government should formulate effective fiscal policy as well to stimulate credit demand of non-bank private sector for economic growth.