合成氨作为化工生产的重要原料，在化工行业的发展中具有基础性的地位和作用。合成氨工业首次纳入国家温室气体排放清单，是我国第三次温室气体排放核算的要求，也是促进我国化工行业节能减排的重要依据。其核算方法、排放因子、活动水平的选择、排放路径的计算均是具有极强的现实意义的。本文综合分析比较了目前已有的国内外合成氨碳排放核算方法，结合IPCC温室气体排放清单指南，根据我国合成氨工业的具体现状，提出了适用于我国的合成氨工业温室气体排放核算方法。利用该方法，对我国2010年和2012年的合成氨碳排放量进行了估算。此外，本文还对合成氨工业2015-2050年的碳排放路径做了预测，分析了我国合成氨工业的节能减排潜力。本文的研究结果表明： 1.碳排放方法学上，国外发达国家在合成氨碳排放核算时候均一定程度上参考IPCC的核算方法，除日本外，各国均给出了缺省情况下的排放因子。我国目前出台了化工行业的核算方法，但针对化工行业中的细分行业（如合成氨）还没有出台更易于操作的核算方法。2.本文提出了适合我国合成氨工业碳排放核算方法。合成氨工业的碳排放源包括燃料燃烧的二氧化碳排放和工业过程的二氧化碳排放，碳排放核算方法选择IPCC指南中给出的方法2。排放因子基于三种不同的原料，分别确定排放因子。经计算得到的煤制合成氨工厂的排放因子为2.737，天然气制合成氨工厂的排放因子为1.835，油制合成氨工厂的排放因子为1.900。我国合成氨行业的综合排放因子为2.522。活动水平主要基于统计年鉴，分原料类型统计。3.经计算，我国2010年、2012年合成氨工业总排放量分别为12650.917 万吨、13806.626 万吨，扣除下游回收的二氧化碳，净排放量分别为10399.450万吨、11104.783万吨，合成氨工业排放量的不确定性为9.68%。4.在基准情景下，合成氨排放量将在在2037年达到峰值，合成氨行业的总的二氧化碳排放为17079.625万吨，之后碳排放了缓慢下降，预测到2050年，我国合成氨行业的碳排放总量降为16574.029万吨。在强节能减排情景下，合成氨工业碳排放总量在2024年达到峰值。对比发现，我国合成氨工业有着较大的节能减排空间。
As an important raw material for chemical industry, synthetic ammonia plays an important role in the development of chemical industry. It is the first time that synthetic ammonia industry has been covered into the national greenhouse gas emission inventory. This is not only the requirements of China's third greenhouse gas emissions accounting, but also a vital basis to promote energy saving and emission reduction of China's chemical industry. The emission calculation methods, emission factors, activity levels and the calculation of the emission paths are of great practical significance.In this paper, we analyze the currently existing synthetic ammonia carbon accounting methods comprehensively, and combine with the IPCC greenhouse gas emission inventory guidebook, we proposed an applicable accounting method for China's synthetic ammonia industrial greenhouse gas emissions, and using this method, we estimate the synthetic ammonia carbon emission amount of China in 2010 and 2012. In addition, we predict the carbon emissions path of synthetic ammonia industry from 2015 to 2050, and analyze the potential of emission reduction. The results of this study show that:1. The carbon emission accounting methods of synthetic ammonia in developed countries refers to IPCC accounting methods to a certain extent, and almost all of developed countries have given the default emission factor except Japan. At present, our country has introduced the chemical industry accounting method, but for the subdivision industry (such as synthetic ammonia) no operable accounting method has been introduced. 2. Carbon emissions accounting method for synthetic ammonia which is suited for our country is proposed. Source of carbon emissions of synthetic ammonia industry include emissions from fuel combustion and that from industrial processes, and we select the method given in the IPCC Guidelines method 2 as the carbon emissions accounting method. Based on three different materials, emission factors are determined. Through calculation, emission factor for the coal-to-ammonia plant is 2.737, for natural gas ammonia plant is1.835, for oil-ammonia plant is1.900.Emission factor of synthetic ammonia industry is 2.522 in China. The level of activity is mainly based on statistical yearbooks, in accordance with the type of feedstock.3. Through calculation, our country’s total industrial emissions of synthetic ammonia in 2010 and 2012 was 126,509,170 tons and 138,066,260 tons. After the deduction of downstream recovery of CO2,net emissions are 103.9945 million tons and 111,047,830 tons. The uncertainty of industrial ammonia emissions is 9.68%.4. Under the baseline scenario，synthetic ammonia emissions will reach its peak in 2037, with total CO2 emissions of synthetic ammonia industry of 170,796,250 tons，then slowly decline.It is predicted that , to 2050, total CO2 emissions of synthetic ammonia industry will be reduced to165,740,290 tons. Under strong energy conservation scenario,synthetic ammonia emissions will reach its peak in 2024 .Through comparison, we can find that synthetic ammonia industry has a greater energy saving space in our country.
