“可持续转型”研究旨在探讨产业经济系统如何通过技术创新和转型以促进可持续发展，关键是公共政策为培育新产业、隔绝环境压力构建一个保护性空间—— “利基”(niche)。理解可持续转型政策和利基内元素的互相影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。中国等新兴国家的转型具有国家驱动和技术跟随的两大特点，但目前实证研究很少关注此类国家。本文着眼于新能源汽车产业，研究中国汽车产业可持续转型的政策和利基互动特征。由于企业转型行为（指绿色产品技术创新及其商业战略）是利基内的关键元素，故本文提出两个相互关联的研究问题：利基内的企业转型行为的驱动机制是什么，政策如何影响之？转型政策变迁的驱动机制又是什么，其中利基内的元素（特别是企业转型行为）如何影响之？技术路线对新兴技术非常重要，故本文用技术路线选择和变迁测度企业转型行为。本文比较了6家乘用车企业，发现转型政策能通过塑造预期、经济激励和监管三个机理影响企业技术路线的变迁；此外，地方政府介入国企决策、企业拥有资源、对未来的不确定性预期都是影响企业间技术路线选择差异的重要因素。产业政策体系从上到下可分为战略任务、支撑工作、政策工具和政策细则四层，按功能可分为需求侧和供给侧。在政策学习视角下，本文比较了6个案例，发现高阶层、供给侧的政策变迁主要是政府根据国内外宏观因素、国内传统汽车技术水平、长期形成的用户偏好、基础设施等因素主动学习调整的过程。低阶层、需求侧的政策变迁则更多表现为政府根据利基内的因素适应性学习的过程,其中企业转型行为是一个突出的驱动因素。综上，本文的理论贡献是在中国语境下发展了可持续转型的理论，揭示了转型政策和利基互动的新特征。除经济激励和监管，转型政策还可通过塑造预期和介入决策驱动企业转型行为。不同类型的转型政策变迁具有差异化的驱动因素和变化模式，并非所有政策都受利基影响。不过，较低层级的政策变迁被企业转型行为所影响，以倒逼企业技术创新，克服投机行为。相比发达国家转型以节能环保，我国还希望实现技术追赶，该目标对政策的影响要强于节能环保。而且，传统技术落后对新兴技术具有矛盾作用，虽拖累了后者发展，却刺激了国家由此契机追赶的决心。本文的实证贡献是全面解释了中国新能源汽车的政策和主要企业技术路线的变迁史，可借鉴于未来研究。本文还为战略研究测度不确定性提供了方法启示。

The scholarly community of sustainability transition explores how to build niche, i.e. a protective space for innovative technology, business model and practices, and to facilitate the growth of niche innovation so that the current socio-technical system is transformed for sustainable development. Interaction between elements in niche and transition policy is an important issue of this research field. Most of existing empirical evidences come from developed countries whereas those from emerging countries like China are scarce. But the latter group is quite different from the former one, because many emerging countries are characterized by later-coming technology capabilities and government-driven transition. Sustainability transition behavior of firms are vital for niche evolution, this study thus analyzes the case of China’s new energy vehicle (abbr. NEV) between 1991 and 2015 to understand two questions: Firstly, what influences the transition behavior of a firm, and how does transition policy influence the behavior; secondly, why does transition policy change, and how do firms in niche influence the change. In the first part, the thesis attempts to find out the factors shaping the choice and change of technological trajectory in firms because trajectory is very crucial for firms, and this thesis therefore operationalizes firms’ transiton behavior with their strategy of technological trajectory. Comparing six passenger car manufacturers, the thesis finds that transition policy may influence the change of a firm’s technological trajectory via three approaches, namely economic incentives, regulation, and shaping expectance. The difference among firms regarding trajectory diversification is determined by a firm’s resources, its expectation towards uncertainty of future market and technology, and direct intervention of local governments. This finding contributes to the strategy management literature by revealing two new influential mechanisms other than economic incentive and regulation that are frequently discussed. In the second part, the thesis turns to explain why the transition policy may change by investigate the policy history of China’s NEV industry. Four levels of policy are identified, i.e. strategic mission, supporting task, policy instrument, and policy calibration, which constitute a hierarchy. The study finds out that policy change of NEV industry is a typological process contingent on the level and influential mechanism of policy. High-level and supply-side policy change tends to be a proactive learning process, which is more driven by elements of landscape and socio-technical regime; whereas low-level and demand-side policy change tends to be an adaptive learning process, which is more driven by elements in niche. In the entire history of policy change, technology leapfrogging is the most prominent driving force because Chinese government expects to harness the opportunity of electrification to catch up in automobile industry. The findings contribute to the theory of policy change because transition policy change is found to be a contingent process depending on policy’s level and influential mechanisms. In addition, international industrial competition, speculative strategy of firms, and conflicting policy mix turn out as three remarkable driving factors of policy change in emerging countries.Summarizing the two parts, the thesis extends the current knowledge stock of sustainability transition in the context of China, regarding the interaction between niche and transition policy. It is a significant driving factor of policy change to prompt their innovation and to overcome the speculative strategy of firms. Moreover, in contrast to developed countries whose policy goals are sustainable development and innovation, China has a third goal that is very important, namely industry and technology leapfrogging. It is an even more prominent polcy goal that drives policy change. This study offers for the first time a very intensive investigation of China’s NEV policy and main OEMs’ strategy, which may be a valuable empirical base for researchers who are interested. Finally, this paper provides methodological hints to measure the concept of uncertainty in research of strategy management.