当前严峻的气候变化问题要求世界各国进行相应的减排,而减排效率和公平需要兼顾,因此,研究碳排放权公平性具有重要的意义。碳排放权分配的公平性问题还需要追究到已有碳排放量的公平与否,本文主要从以下几个方面进行研究:第一,首先探讨收入分配公平性的不同方法,基于方法复杂度和数据可得性,选用洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数来研究碳排放领域分配的公平性问题。第二,本文将以往研究中基于国家层面的碳排放不公平性研究扩展到个人层面,并计算每个国家的人际层面碳基尼系数。进一步,将样本中不同国家分为附件一和非附件一国家,将两组得到的人际碳不公平性结果进行对比。第三,研究全球人际碳基尼系数,得到一个人际碳排放的全球性指标。第四,分别计算国家和人际层面的碳排放公平性,并将两者进行横向比较。第五,构建人际碳Kakwani指数和Suits指数,对中国和全球人际碳排放进行累进累退研究,作为对人际碳排放公平性研究的补充。研究得出:1)2011年中国的人际碳基尼系数为0.4201,高过警戒值0.4,且收入排放弹性的敏感性分析得出,收入排放弹性越大,人际层面碳排放不公平性越显著。2)附件一和非附件一国家分组计算结果显示,附件一国家中只有3.03%的国家人际碳基尼系数超过0.4;而非附件一国家人际碳基尼系数超过0.4的国家占比高达52.63%,最高值达到0.63。3)全球人际层面碳基尼系数(位于0.5779至0.6730之间)远高于0.4,证明全球人际层面上碳排放在很大程度上存在不公平分配;并且收入排放弹性越大,人际层面碳排放分配的不公平性越大。4)用同一组数据计算的全球国家层面的碳基尼系数小于全球人际碳基尼系数,这证明在国家层面上,碳排放不公平性被低估。5)碳排领域累进累退性研究结果显示:当收入排放弹性小于1时,中国人际碳排放是累退的;当弹性大于1时,人际碳排放累进;当弹性等于1时,人际碳排放是成比例的。全球累进累退研究结果与中国的分析结果一致。本文证明在人际层面上考虑碳排放的不公平性问题更加准确细致,并且能够为全球碳排放权在人际水平(而非基于国家水平)进行分配的公平性衡量提供一定的理论基础。
Currently, serious situation of climate change requires nations all over the world to reduce carbon emission according to every county’s actual condition; while both the efficiency and equality of carbon reduction should be taken seriously when deciding the distribution of carbon emissions among countries in the world. Under such context, the study of the equality of carbon emissions is pretty much significant. The equality of carbon emission right is closely connected with the carbon emission which has already emitted into the atmosphere, so this research investigates the issue of equality from the following several aspects: first, we have summarized different methods of the inequality of income distribution, and choose the Lorenz curve and Gini index to measure the inequality of carbon emission according to the flexibility of method and the availability of data. Second, because of the huge discrepancy of the carbon emissions among people who belong to different income levels inside almost every country, this research investigates the inequality of carbon emission based on personal level instead of previous studies which mostly focused on national level, and calculates the personal Gini index of every country in the sample. In addition, we group all countries into annex one countries and non-annex one countries and compare the results of the two groups. Third, global carbon Gini coefficient on personal level has been calculated so that a global index of carbon distribution’s equality is required. Fourth, the equality of carbon emission on personal level and on national level are all studied and further make the comparison. Fifth, selecting Kakwani index and Suits index, we make the research on the progressivity of carbon distribution on personal level for both China and global nations; thus more detailed measures of the inequality of carbon emission comes to be obtained.Based on the study mentioned above, we find that 1) Chinese Gini index on personal level is 0.4201 in 2011, more than the warning level of 0.4. Besides, from the analysis of emission elasticity, the larger the emission elasticity, the higher the distribution inequality of carbon emission shows. 2) the grouping results of annex one countries and non-annex one countries shows that for annex one countries, only 3.03 percent of countries’ personal Gini index is more than 0.4, which, to a great degree, is conversely to the results of non-annex one countries (52.63 percent, with the highest value 0.63). 3) the global carbon Gini coefficient on personal level is far more than the warning level of 0.4, which proves that the carbon emissions on personal level is distributed unfairly to a great extent. Furthermore the larger emission elasticity is, the higher the distribution inequality of carbon emission shows. 4) comparing the Gini index on personal level and on national level, we find that carbon Gini coefficient on national level is smaller than that of personal level, which means the inequality of carbon emission tends to be underestimated when to be considered on national level. 5) the results of progressivity of carbon emission shows that the carbon emission on personal level in China is regressive when the income emission elasticity is smaller than one; the carbon emission on personal level in China is progressive when the elasticity is larger than one, and when the elasticity equals one, the carbon emission is proportional. The global analysis results are the same as China.This paper proves that measuring the inequality of carbon emission distribution on personal level stands to be more accurate and considerate. Furthermore, this study is able to provide the theory basis for the equality of global carbon emission distribution on personal level rather than on national level.