机动车保有量快速增长所带来的能源安全和大气污染等问题在我国已日益凸显。新能源汽车因在运行阶段的高效率和超低/零排放，被认为是未来汽车技术的发展方向。但是，新能源汽车上游燃料生产等过程的能源消耗和污染物排放不容忽视，因此，亟需引入生命周期的评价方法对新能源车进行全面科学评估。本研究针对轻型车和公交车两类典型车型，完善了电动车和天然气车单车燃料生命周期评价方法，建立了基于时间序列的本地化生命周期数据库。以传统汽柴油车为基准，系统评估了全国和典型区域电动车和天然气车燃料生命周期的单车节能减排效益。并进一步构建了车队生命周期评价方法，分析了不同发展情景下北京车队整体的节能减排效益，并提出未来新能源车发展的政策建议。电动车和天然气车的推广对于改善我国石油安全意义重大。纯电动车和天然气车几乎不消耗石油，但需指出这一效益的主要是通过一种化石燃料（石油）向另一种化石燃料（煤或天然气）的转移实现的。电动车的石油能耗、化石能耗和CO2排放削减效益依次递减，且其对化石能耗和CO2的削减效果受上游电力构成、煤电发电效率、车辆燃油经济性等因素综合影响。本研究建立了纯电动车燃料生命周期CO2排放的盈亏平衡点和燃油经济性、发电效率及煤电比例等关键参数的定量响应关系，并根据分区域电力构成特点提出了差异化的发展建议：近期京津冀地区混合动力车CO2减排效益更佳，而珠三角则纯电动车减排最优。本研究系统分析了电力构成、电厂控制技术、车辆排放控制水平、燃油经济性等因素对大气污染物排放的影响规律。对于主要来自车辆运行阶段的VOC和CO排放，纯电动车在其燃料生命周期有95%以上的巨大削减效果。对于主要来自上游燃料生产过程的一次PM2.5和SO2排放，电动车的推广会导致污染物排放从车辆运行阶段向上游电力行业转移。插电式混合动力车和纯电动车会显著增加PM2.5和SO2排放，在京津冀等煤电比例较高的区域尤为明显；而公交车队中推广天然气车则可实现PM2.5和SO2的最佳减排效益。因此，若希望在推广电动车后获得理想的削减效益，还需更大力推进上游电力清洁化及更高效除尘脱硫等先进控制技术的应用。针对NOX，电动轻型车和电动公交车呈现截然相反的结果。电动轻型车的NOX排放强烈依赖于上游的电力构成，例如2015年京津冀地区其相比汽油车仍有40%的NOX增加，仅在珠三角地区会略有下降；电动公交车则是实现NOX减排的最佳车型，相比于柴油公交车其削减比例高达80%~90%。

With the rapid growth of vehicle population in China, the energy consumption and environmental pollution brought by vehicles have become increasingly significant. The Chinese government paid attention to the new energy vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles recently, because they can reduce the pollutants emissions largely during the vehciel operation stage. Considering the energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the upstream stage, the life cycle analysis is important for the evaluation of energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction from new energy vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles. This study established the time series life cycle analysis database for light-duty vehicles and buses and life cycle analysis methodology for electric vehicles, CNG vehicles and gasoline/diesel vehicles, then evaluated the energy consumption and pollutant emissions of vehicles in the national, regional and city levels. The study further established the life cycle analysis methodology for light-duty vehicle fleet and bus fleet to assess the energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction for vehicle fleet and put forward the policy suggestion for the development of new energy vehicles in the furture.This study showed that the BEV and CNGV were of great significance for the oil security of China. They almost elimated the oil consumption, but they reduced one type of fossil fuel (petroleum) according to the increase of another type (coal and natural gas). The fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of BEV have been largely effected by the electricity mix, generating efficiency and fuel economy of vehicles. Therefore, this study researched the quantitative response relationship between the breakeven point of CO2 emissions and the fuel economy, generating efficiency and coal share, in order to give the different developing route for three regions.Meanwhile, the study analysed the impact of air pollutant emissions rule from the energy structure, power plant technology improvement, emission control of vehicles and fuel economy. For the VOC and CO emisisons, which mainly come from the vehicle operation stage, the EVs can reduce the VOC and CO emissions significantly in the fule life cycle, and the BEV has the best reduction benefit of above 95%. For the PM2.5 and SO2 emissions，which mainly from the upstream stage, the promotion of EVs will lead the reduction of pollutant emissions during the vehicle operation and the increase of the power plants. Therefore, the government should improve the clean energy in the power plants and increase the dust removal and sweetener equiments, in order to obtain the pollutant emissions reduction of the vehciel fleet.Furthermore, this study researched the pollutant emissions difference between light-duty vehicle and bus. The light-duty BEV and the BEV bus had the opposite results in NOX emissions. The light-duty BEV greatly depended on the electricity generation mix. Therefore in 2015 light-duty BEV in PRD can reduce NOX emission by 6%, compared to ICEV; But light-duty BEV in JJJ increase NOX emission by 40%. Differently, the BEV bus is the best choice to reduce WTW NOX emissions by 80%~90%, compared to DV.