道路交通已经成为我国能源消费和碳排放的主要部门之一。我国车用能源系统正处在快速发展时期，具有汽车保有量快速增加、车队特征快速变化、政策因素影响显著的特点。我国车用能源消费和碳排放在未来有较大的增长潜力，同时存在一定的不确定性。需要建立能够反映我国车用能源系统发展机理的车用能源系统模型，对我国车用能源消费和碳排放的未来发展趋势进行预测，对节能减排措施的效果进行评估。本研究采用自底向上的建模方式构建了基于三维度汽车分类的中国车用能源系统模型，包含汽车存活规律、汽车使用强度、汽车燃料消耗量、汽车动力系统市场渗透率等子模块，为我国车用能源消费和碳排放的情景模拟提供了标准工具；针对汽车存活规律和汽车使用强度两项车队特征进行了基于实际样本的模型参数回归，给出了该两项车队特征的可靠描述；根据各类汽车保有量增长的不同特点，构建了由四类基本模型组成的中国汽车保有量混合预测模型，将汽车保有量与居民收入、城市化率、城市规模、经济总量、交通结构等影响因素相关联，并对各类汽车保有量进行了分别的预测；基于减排目标的讨论和减排贡献率的定义，对私人乘用车和长途重载货车的减排措施进行了减排效果评价，并采用对减排措施进行定量组合的方式给出了私人乘用车和长途重载货车的减排替代情景。本研究主要结论有：(1)我国汽车保有量增长潜力巨大，预计到2050年将增长到6.97亿辆，汽车保有率约为千人478辆，其中私人乘用车保有量预计将达到5.78亿辆，占总保有量的82.8%。我国汽车保有量增长主要由经济增长、城市人口增加等因素驱动，具有较大刚性，但北京上海等地已经实施的汽车保有量控制政策也体现了政策因素对于汽车保有量潜在的巨大影响。(2)在延续现有政策法规和保持一定技术进步的条件下，预计我国汽柴油消费量（替代燃料折算成汽柴油当量）到2050年将分别增加到2.5亿吨和3.5亿吨，车用燃料全生命周期碳排放将从2010年的7.2亿吨增加到2050年的26.9亿吨（二氧化碳当量），其中私人乘用车和长途重载货车碳排放量分别占排放总量的36.2%和35.5%。(3)以2050年车用燃料全生命周期碳排放相比2010年增加1倍为减排目标进行减排措施评价和减排情景设计，私人乘用车减排措施较为丰富，交通需求管理、能量效率提升、提高新型动力系统市场渗透都可以达到理想的减排效果；长途重载货车减排措施则相对有限，降低货车货运强度是主要的减排措施，提升能量效率则可以发挥辅助作用。
Road transport has become one of China’s largest sectors in terms of energy consumption and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. China’s automotive energy system is in the period of rapid development, with increasing vehicle ownership, fast-changing fleet characteristics and significant impact from government policies. Tremendous growth potential lies in the future of China’s automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions, implying great uncertainty as well. Automotive energy system modeling is in need to simulate the mechanism of China’s automotive energy system, to project the future trend of automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions, and to evaluate the effectiveness of energy-saving and GHG emissions reduction measures.In this study, we established a three-dimension vehicle classification based automotive energy system model in China’s context using bottom-up approach. The model consists of several sub-modules including vehicle survival pattern, vehicle use intensity, fuel consumption rate and propulsion system penetration sub-modules. The model can be used to simulate the future scenarios of China’s automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions. Vehicle survival pattern and vehicle use intensity were modeled and the model parameters were regressed using collected samples, demonstrating better reliability than other approaches. A hybrid model with four sub-models describing the mechanism of China’s vehicle ownership growth was established. The model correlates China’s vehicle ownership with household income, urbanization, urban size, economy and transport structure. By using this model, we projected China’s vehicle ownership through 2050. By quantifying the GHG reduction target and defining GHG reduction contribution rate, the measures associated with GHG reduction of private passenger vehicle and long-distance, heavy-load trucks were evaluated. Based on the evaluation, the GHG reduction alternative scenarios were designed by quantitatively combining these GHG reduction measures.The main conclusions from this study include: (1) China’s vehicle population will keep rapid growth into the foreseeable future and is likely to reach 697 million in 2050, implying a vehicle ownership of about 478 vehicles per 1000 capita. The population of private passenger vehicles is likely to reach 578 million in 2050, accounting for 82.8% of total vehicle population. China’s vehicle population growth is mainly driven by economy growth and urbanization, implying great rigidity. Meanwhile, the policies of constraining vehicle ownership implemented in Beijing and Shanghai have significantly demonstrated the effectiveness of policy orientation by the government. (2) Under the circumstance that current policy and technology improvement continue into the future, China’s automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions will keep rapid growth. The automotive gasoline and diesel consumptions (alternative fuels were converted to gasoline and diesel equivalents) will reach 250 million ton and 350 million ton respectively in 2050. The life cycle GHG emissions from vehicle fuels will increase from 0.72 billion ton in 2010 to 2.69 billion ton in 2050 (CO2 equivalent). Private passenger vehicles and long-distance heavy-load trucks account for 36.2% and 35.5% of total GHG emissions, respectively. (3) Based on the GHG reduction target that life cycle GHG emissions from vehicle fuels in 2050 are 2 times the level in 2010, we conducted GHG reduction measure evaluation and GHG reduction alternative scenario design. Several options can be used to reduce GHG emissions from private passenger vehicles. Transport demand management, energy efficiency improvement and new propulsion system promotion can all achieve ideal GHG reduction effect. Fewer measures are available to reduce GHG emissions from long-distance heavy-load trucks.
