煤间接液化是近年来受到广泛关注、同时也引起巨大争议的一类能源替代型技术。我国能源具有贫油少气而煤资源相对较多的特点，近年来国际油价大幅上涨、我国石油对外依存度提高等现实，促使了煤间接液化技术热潮的形成。然而，煤间接液化技术规模化应用技术尚不成熟、CO2排放高、水资源消耗大等问题，使其发展受到严重制约。面临着能源市场风险、气候政策以及技术发展水平三方面不确定因素，如何在不确定的环境下科学地、客观地定量化评价该项技术，成为国家制定能源发展战略、企业进行相关投资决策的一项迫切需求。本课题发展了一套将流程模拟与ROA(Real Options Analysis)不确定评价理论相结合的方法，对我国煤间接液化项目进行了不确定环境下的评价。主要工作包括如下三个方面：(1)基于流程模拟，对煤间接液化全过程及其不同碳捕集技术选择进行了工艺分析。将全流程分解为六大子系统，开展了各子系统和全流程的模拟；考虑技术不确定性，针对未来可能的碳减排要求，在碳捕集子系统中评价、比较了两种传统CO2吸收工艺和一种新型CO2吸收剂的技术选择；(2)开展了市场不确定性对煤间接液化的技术经济影响评价。建立了煤间接液化的技术经济分析模型，结合流程模拟数据开展了静态技术经济分析，进一步考虑市场不确定因素，利用蒙特卡罗模拟的方法评价了其市场不确定条件下的技术经济性；(3)建立了不确定条件下煤间接液化投资和操作策略评价模型。刻画了能源市场、气候政策和技术发展三方面的不确定因素，以工艺模拟分析结果与技术经济分析结果为数据支撑，基于ROA理论，建立了面向多产品的不确定投资操作策略评价模型并进行策略评价。设计了扩展的清洁发展机制、自由碳市场和碳税三种气候政策情景，利用模型开展了不同情景下的投资策略分析。综上，本研究提出了一套适用于不确定条件下的能源技术评价方法框架，以此为基础，通过流程模拟、技术经济分析和ROA模型的综合，对我国煤间接液化技术进行了不确定性评价，提出了不确定环境下煤间接液化及其碳捕集技术的投资与操作策略。
Indirect coal-to-liquids (ICL), an alternative of fuel-supplying technology, draws a broad range of attention as well as considerable debate in China’s energy sector. The tide of ICL all around China roots in some facts, in particular, the rapid growth of oil price in the international market recently, the increasing dependence on imported oil and China’s resource endowment characterized by the shortage of oil and natural gas despite the relative abundance of coal. Yet the crucial hurdles on the way lie in several natural drawbacks of ICL, including not only the lack of commercial maturity for large-scale application, but also its high CO2 emissions and water resource consumption. The future development of ICL as such is confronted with three sources of uncertainties, i.e. energy market, climate policy and technological advancement. Within this uncertain environment, how to scientifically and unprejusticedly evaluate this technology in a quantitative way, emerges as an urgent question to answer for both policy-makers planning the energy developing strategy and investors hunting for benefit-gaining opportunities. To address this issue, this research investigated the uncertain assessment methodology of ICL, based on developing an analytical framework which combined ROA theory (Real Options Analysis) with process simulation approach. The main contribution of this thesis involved three regards:(1)A thorough technical analysis was conducted based on the process simulation of the entire process and three CO2 capture alternatives. The entire process was decomposed into six sub-systems, among which the sub-system of CO2 separation and capture was particularly studied in light of an amount of alternative process choices. Three absorbents were compared, two of which were conventional and one was novel. (2)The impact of market uncertainty on the economics of the technology was examined via the cost model developed in the study. The static economics was evaluated with the data drawn from process simulation results. Further, the influential factors in the cost model were extracted to represent market uncertainties, and the corresponding cost results under uncertainty were computed through Monte-Carlo simulations. (3)A ROA-based model was established aiming at assessing the investment and operation decision of ICL under uncertainty. The three sources of uncertainties, namely, energy market, climate policy and technological advancement were investigated, described, and eventually incorporated into the ROA model, which considered a multi-outputs supplying system, and employed the data obtained from process simulation and techno-economic analysis. Three scenarios were designed with regard to future possible climate policy, which included Extended CDM (Clean Development Mechanism), Free Carbon Market and Carbon Tax. The ROA model was therefore adapted to assess the optimal investing strategy of carbon capture technology for China’s ICL project. In a summary, this research developed an analytical framework with the purpose of assessing energy technology considering various sources of uncertainties, which incorporated process simulation, techno-economic analysis, and ROA-based model. A comprehensive assessment of China’s ICL technology within an uncertain context was conducted in the framework. Accordingly, investment and operation strategies for ICL project and carbon capture technology were also suggested.
