论文依托国家高新技术发展计划（863计划）综合交通运输系统与安全技术专题中项目“城市常规公交智能化运营调度关键技术研究”，主要对城市公交顾客满意度及满意度改进策略进行了研究。在建立城市公共交通满意度评价指标体系的研究工作中，本文采用了层次分析—模糊综合判别方法对城市公共交通的服务水平进行评估，设计了城市公共交通的满意度评价指标体系，并给出了满意度评价的定量求解模型。在评价指标的选择中，本文着重考虑了城市公交可靠性，即公交车容量可靠性，行程时间可靠性和站点准点到达可靠性对城市公共交通满意度的影响，将可靠性指标引入到满意度评价指标体系中来，设计了调查问卷，并在调查问卷中给出了指标的定量参考值以供参与调查的顾客所参考，得出具有一致性的评价指标。在案例分析阶段，本研究在北京和深圳各选择一条具有代表性的公交线路，设计了调查问卷，并给出了各指标评语的定量参考值，利用模型进行了求解，得出了两线路的评价指标权重值以及满意度指标量化值。在满意度评价指标建立的过程中，可靠性指标尤其是行程时间可靠性在满意度评价中具有极其重要的地位，要改善公交的服务水平，首先需要提高公交服务的可靠性，而提高公交服务的可靠性，最常见的方法是设置公交专用车道。基于对可靠性的分析以及实际交通状况的模拟，在本论文中建立了基于可靠性改进的公交专用车道的设置模型，以行程时间可靠性为约束，公交专用车道设置费用最小为目标函数，建立了机会约束规划模型。在模型的建立过程中，论文对交叉口延误的估计进行了较为深入的总结和研究。对于实际案例分析，分别采用分支定界法和遗传算法对模型进行了求解，得出了优化策略。在对满意度评价及改善的模型进行了详细的介绍之后，为方便公交管理人员对各公交线路满意度的评价及对公交线路的优化配置，研究开发了一套信息系统，分三个子系统：地理信息系统，满意度评价子系统，满意度改进子系统。论文对信息系统的功能设计，业务逻辑，以及数据库设计进行了详细的说明，采用面向对象的软件开发方法，便于修改和维护。软件开发平台采用Visual Studio. Net 2005，开发语言为C# 2.0.在文章的最后，对恶劣条件下的满意度评价方法以及基于可靠性改进的公交专用车道和公交专用相位联动设置策略做了研究展望。
Public transit is of great significance to our country, especially in metropolitan. The research focuses on building evaluation system of satisfaction degree towards public transit industries. Firstly, an evaluation system towards public transit industries is established through reviews of related theories and surveys of some public transit users. The evaluation index system pays more attention to the travel time reliability, punctual arrival reliability, and road capacity reliability. The AHP method is used to obtain the weights of evaluation index. Quantitative value of evaluation index can be calculated by using Fuzzy Theory. Case studies are performed by taking surveys and questionnaires in Beijing and Shenzhen.During building the evaluation system, we get that the transportation reliability contributes most for the satisfaction degree of public transit system. Therefore, the reliability must be improved if we want to enhance the service level. Based on the reliability theory, a chance-constrained programming model for bus lane setting-up method is built. Afterwards, Branch and Bound algorithm and Genetic Algorithm are adopted to solve the integer programming model. After detailing the model for satisfaction degree evaluation and improvement, the model is computerized as software in order to serve the need of public transit managers. The software includes three parts: Geographical Information System, Satisfaction Degree Evaluation System, and Satisfaction Degree Improvement System. The programming adopts the Oriented Object Programming and Design methods. The functional design, business logic, and database design are proposed in detail to guide the software development in the Chapter 5.At last, the conclusions and further researches are proposed in the last chapter. The research is funded by ‘National 863 Plan Project’.
