燃煤电厂是我国大气污染和区域酸沉降控制的重点。开展燃煤电厂排放水平及其环境影响的研究，对我国未来大气污染控制和能源、环境与社会发展的综合决策具有重要意义。本研究建立综合排放特征、污染控制情景、空气质量影响和生态风险评价于一体的燃煤电厂污染控制决策方法，对我国燃煤电厂的SO2、NOx和PM（颗粒物）排放的时空分布，及其对区域空气质量和生态系统酸化的影响进行了全面的分析。通过现场测试获得典型电厂SO2、NOx和PM的排放因子，重点针对NOx和不同粒径的颗粒物建立我国燃煤电厂分燃料、炉型和控制技术的排放因子库。采用“基于机组”的方法测算得到2005年全国燃煤电厂SO2、NOx和PM排放总量分别为16097、6965和2774 kt，分别占全国人为源排放的53%、36%和9%；根据我国电力建设规划，预计到2010年，燃煤电厂能源消耗总量较2005年将上升62%，SO2、NOx和PM排放总量将分别达到11801、9680和2540 kt；如果关停小火电和“两控区”政策得到切实执行，排放量将分别下降至7956、9059和1901 kt。2015年后，NOx将成为燃煤电厂首要污染物。针对我国高盐基阳离子沉降的现状，对临界负荷方法进行扩展，并基于该扩展模式完成了中国硫和氮的临界负荷区划，用以评价生态系统酸化状况。利用区域空气质量模型CMAQ模拟分析电厂大气污染排放造成的环境影响。结果表明，电厂的SO2排放对大气硫污染有较大贡献，“十一五”期间对电厂实施烟气脱硫效果明显，大气SO2浓度及硫沉降均有所下降，但我国东部和中南部硫沉降超临界负荷依然普遍存在，表明未来我国生态系统酸化风险仍不可忽视。由于缺乏严格的排放控制政策和措施，氮污染将进一步恶化，并在很大程度上抵消因硫排放削减导致的生态系统酸化改善效果，因此电厂的NOx排放控制将成为未来我国区域大气污染治理的重要任务。电厂对PM的排放分担率和浓度贡献均低于SO2和NOx，仅对电厂实施控制对大气颗粒物污染的改善效果并不显著，因此需在控制电厂排放的同时，加强对其他重要排放源的管理与控制。
Coal-fired power plant is the main control target of air pollution and regional acid deposition in China. Study on the emission level and its environmental impacts can be of significant importance for future air pollution control and comprehensive decision making for energy, environment and society. In this study, an incorporate methodology was developed, combining the emission estimation, control scenario setting, air quality impact and ecology risk assessment, to evaluate the SO2, NOx and PM emissions from coal-fired power plants with time and spatial distribution and the corresponding impacts on regional air quality and ecological acidification.Field measurements were carried out to obtain the SO2, NOx and PM emission factors of typical coal-fired power plants. Based on the test results and published literatures, an emission factor database of Chinese coal-fired power plants especially for NOx and particulate matters with different aerodynamic diameters was established, classified with unit type, fuel quality, and emission control technology. With a novel “unit-based” emission inventory method, the SO2, NOx and TSP emissions of Chinese coal-fired power sector were estimated to be 16097, 6965 and 2774 kt respectively in 2005. According to national plans of power construction, the total coal consumption of power sector would increase by 62% during 2005-2010. The SO2, NOx and TSP emissions from coal-fired power plants would change to 11801, 9680, and 2540 kt respectively in 2010, and could be further decreased to 7956, 9059 and 1901 kt respectively through faithful implementation of closing small units and emission control policies in the Acid Rain and Sulfur Dioxide Control Zones. After 2015, NOx would become the key pollutant of Chinese power plants.To better quantify the acid sensitivity of Chinese ecosystems under extreme high base cation deposition, an extension of SSMB method for critical load calculation was conducted. With this new-built model, the critical load mapping was updated based on former studies, and used for the criterion of ecosystem acidification judgment. CMAQ was applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of power plant emissions. Since power sector emission contributed largely to atmospheric sulfur pollution, the control measure of wet flue gas desulphurization (WFGD) installation on power plants is efficacious during the “11th five-year” period. The SO2 concentration and regional S deposition would be substantially decreased between 2005 and 2010. However, the exceedance of S critical load would still commonly occur in eastern, and central & southern China, implying that future risk of ecosystem acidification could not be neglected. Due to lack of strict control policies and measures, N pollution would be more serious, and could largely counteract the acidification abatement from SO2 emission cutting. Thus NOx emission control of power sectors would become an important task of regional air pollution mitigation in the future. The emission share and concentration contribution of PM by power sector were relatively lower than that of SO2 and NOx. Therefore controlling PM emission from power plant separately could not solve the PM pollution effectively, indicating the significance of controlling other important PM emission sources as well as power plant.
