大气颗粒物是影响我国区域性复合型污染的重要污染物，准确描述其排放特征是研究区域性复合型污染，并制订控制对策的重要前提。本研究旨在通过构建我国高分辨率颗粒物排放清单的编制技术方法，建立排放清单并分析我国颗粒物及其重要化学组分的排放历史变化趋势和地理分布特征，在此基础上借助空气质量模型分析我国中长期大气污染物控制政策对我国大气颗粒物排放和环境浓度的影响。首先，针对53种污染源，建立了反映到第4级源分类的活动水平数据及模型工具库，并针对不同类别的排放源，归纳了行业和设备技术参数与逐年排放因子间的函数关系，由此构建了我国高分辨率颗粒物排放清单的编制技术方法。利用所建立的技术方法，编制了分3个粒径段、涵盖4种重要化学组分、连续15年的全国人为源大气颗粒物排放清单，以及基于设备信息的2005年我国电力、水泥、钢铁行业点源排放清单。分析了能源、工业活动方式的变化和技术进步对我国各部门颗粒物排放的影响。我国人为源颗粒物的排放在1990～2005年间经历了1996年、2000年和2004年三个拐点。1996年排放量最高，为3548万吨，其中PM101851万吨，PM2.51197万吨。水泥工业和民用部门生物质燃烧是我国PM2.5的主要来源；建材生产工业的颗粒物排放超过总量的50%。颗粒物排放的地区分布及变化趋势极不平衡，山东、河北、江苏、河南、广东和四川是我国PM2.5排放最高的省份，其排放约占全国总排放量的40%。BC和OC的排放总量呈增长趋势；盐基阳离子总排放量在1996年后减少，在一定程度上加剧了酸雨污染。在经验证的2005年排放清单基础上，使用CMAQ模型模拟不同控制政策情景下我国2020年的空气质量，发现现有控制政策和加强控制政策基本能够保证2020年全国PM10年均浓度达到现行国家二级标准，但是PM2.5年均浓度超过WHO PM2.5过渡时期目标的国土面积仍有13.1%，且全部集中在华北、华中、四川盆地等人口集中的区域。在本研究所设计的政策情景下，尽管PM2.5的浓度在下降，但其中硝酸盐的比例将明显升高，因此我国需要尽早启动NOx控制相关政策与计划，以减少二次硝酸盐颗粒物的形成。
Paticulate matter (PM) plays an important role in complex regional air pollution in China. Understanding the characteristics of PM emissions is essential to study the pattern of complex regional air pollution and to fumulate control strategy. The purpose of this study is to develop high-resolution emission inventories of PM through estabulishing a set of methods, analyse the historical trends and spatial distribution of emissions of PM and its key chemical components, and then assess the influence of Mid-and-Long term air quality control strategies on emissions and atmospheric concentration of PM by applying air quality model.Firstly, a set of methods, involving a database and several models for the activitiy information of 53 types of emission sources with the classification of 4th level, and functions between technology level and inter-annual emission factors for each type of emission sources, were established for developing high-resolution emission inventories of PM in China.Based on these methods, inter-annual anthropogenic emissions of PM by 3 size ranges and 4 key chemical components during the year of 1990~2005 were estimated, a unit-based emission inventory for point sources of power, cement, iron & steel industry was also developed for the year of 2005. Characteristics of PM emissions from each sectors in China, as well as its driven force from changes of energy and industry activities and technology improvement, was analysised thereby. Trend of anthropogenic PM emissions in China changed in the year of 1996, 2000, and 2004, and the maximum PM emissions took place in the year of 1996, with 35.48 Tg of TSP, 18.51 Tg of PM10, and 11.97 Tg of PM2.5 emitted. Cement industry and biomass combustion in domestic sector are the most important sources of PM2.5 emissions. Timbering industry contributes more than 50% of TSP emissions. Distribution of PM emissions and its trends shows great regional differences: Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Henan, Guangdong and Sichuan contribute 40% of PM2.5 emissions in China. Emissions of BC and OC kept increase during the year of 1990~2005; while emissions of base cations declined after the year of 1996, probably resulting in more acid depositions.Based on the emission inventory for the year of 2005, air quality under various emission control policy scenarios in the year of 2020 was simulated with Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Current and enhanced control policies can eliminate PM10 non-attainment areas in the year of 2020, according to current air quality standard, but there will wtill be 13.1% of national aera with annual PM2.5 concentration above interrium target of World Health Organasition, and the high PM2.5 concentration occurs in the area with high population density such as Norch China, Middle China and Sichuan basin. Propotion of nitrate in PM2.5 will increase significantly under all scenarios, though concentration of PM2.5 will decline. The results indicate that programs to control NOx emissions in China should be formulated and launched as soon as possible to abate the formation of secondary nitrate.
